2023年油轮市场前景可期

Best 2023 outlook for tankers

2022年,油轮定期租船平均边际收益从年初的45%增加到年底的78%,预计2023年油轮将在三大主力船型运输市场中脱颖而出。2021年年底,集装箱运输市场处于历史性的上升阶段,运费和定期租船费率尚未到达峰值。与此同时,干散货船收益正从多年来的高位下滑,但仍高于前几年的水平。然而,油轮市场仍蹒跚在新冠疫情导致的低谷中,似乎看不到快速复苏的希望。

The container market peak has fizzled out and a brief resurgence in the dry bulk market during spring did not last.However,the tanker markets have prospered,and the Baltic Exchange indices for the two tanker markets have hit their highest levels since the mid-2000s.In addition,time charter rates for tanker ships have increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.The average time charter contribution margin for tanker ships(time charter rate minus operating expenses)has increased from 45%at the beginning of the year to 78%at the end,from the lowest to the highest of the three main shipping segments.During 2022,tanker trades have benefitted from a 4%increase in oil production and a reshaping of tanker trades.As a result of the war in Ukraine,the EU and Russia found new suppliers and new buyers respectively as the year progressed.Average sailing distances increased and added to tonne miles demand.In December,EU’s ban on Russian oil took effect and closed Russia-EU trade,and in February the trade in refined products will close as well.In 2023,the tanker market will benefit from increased sailing distances for both crude and product tankers as EU’s ban of Russian refined oil products will take effect in February.Supply growth will be minimal,and we expect the tanker market to be the best-performing market of the three main shipping markets.The container market is likely to suffer from over supply while the dry bulk market is not expected to see significant demand growth.