中国财政政策乘数的时变特征及经济周期相依性研究

Time Varying Characteristics of China's Fiscal Multipliers and Its Business Cycle Dependence

本文运用时变参数因子增强向量自回归(TVP-FAVAR)模型测算多种时变财政乘数,结合时点脉冲响应函数分析经济周期中财政政策稳定经济的多种理论机制。研究发现:(1)我国时变财政乘数同时具备短期的周期性变化和阶段性的结构趋势。在2012年之前,财政支出对产出和消费的乘数效应有着明显的逆国内经济周期趋势,财政支出对投资的乘数效应则呈现出强劲的上升态势,但在2012年后,财政支出对产出和投资的乘数效应受到经济结构失衡的影响均发生结构性的下滑,而财政支出对消费的乘数效应保持平稳水平;(2)财政支出对进口和出口的乘数效应都具有“先升后降”的顺世界经济周期趋势,前者稍高于后者,我国扩张性财政政策总体上产生正向外溢效应,但该效应在后危机时期不断减弱;(3)在亚洲金融风暴、全球金融危机和经济新常态这三个典型的经济波动阶段,财政政策均能通过汇率、金融、信贷、股市等渠道有效地稳定经济,且财政政策与货币政策具有协调性特点,这些都对财政乘数有促进作用,而政府债务累积渠道和进口外溢渠道的存在在一定程度上削弱了财政政策效果。

This paper first uses the time-varying parameter factor enhanced vector autoregressive(TVP-FAVAR)model to calculate a variety of time-varying fiscal multipliers,and then combined with the time point impulse response function analyzes different theoretical channels for fiscal policy to stabilize the economy in the business cycle.The results of the study are as follows:(1)China's time-varying fiscal multiplier has both short-term periodic change and phased structural trend.Before the year 2012,the multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure on output and consumption had an obvious trend against the domestic business cycle,and the multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure on investment showed a strong upward trend.However,after that year,the multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure on output and investment has fallen structurally affected by the imbalance of the economic structure,while the multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure on consumption has remained stable;(2)The multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure on imports and exports has a trend of“rising first and then falling”in line with the world business cycle.The former is slightly higher than the latter.China's expansionary fiscal policy has a positive spillover effect on the whole,but this effect continues to weaken in the post-crisis period;(3)In the three typical economic fluctuation stages of the Asian financial crisis,the global financial crisis and the new economic normal,the fiscal policy can effectively stabilize the economy through exchange rate,finance,credit,stock market and other channels,and the fiscal policy and the monetary policy have the characteristics of coordination,which can promote the fiscal multiplier,while the existence of government debt accumulation channels and import spillover channels weaken the fiscal effect to a certain extent.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions:(1)Continue to promote and deepen the supply side structural reform,eliminate the backward,excess capacity,accelerate the new infrastructure construction driven by innovation,promote the upgrading and adjustment of the industrial structure,create a high-quality investment environment,and stabilize the multiplier effect of fiscal expenditure on investment.(2)Give full play to the role of the fiscal policy in promoting consumption,which is an important link to achieve steady economic growth in the period of cyclical and structural downturn.Especially in the period of global pneumonia epidemic,how to use modern scientific and technological forces such as digital economy and Internet finance to promote consumption upgrading while stimulating the total consumption demand is of great significance to the recovery of both supply and demand after the epidemic.(3)We should further dredge the intermediary channels through which the fiscal policy affects the economy,strengthen the coordination between structural monetary policy tools and the fiscal policy,and implement the regulation and control mode of the long-term flow and precision irrigation.