入世以来中国省级区域贸易利益及影响因素

The Trade Gains and Influencing Factors of China’s Provincial-level Regions Since China’s Accession to the WTO

中国入世20多年以来,总体贸易利益增长固然惊人,但增长背后存在着巨大的空间不平衡性,区域协调的问题随之而来。通过构建包含省际贸易和国际贸易的企业异质性贸易模型,能够量化分析省级贸易利益,从贸易利益源泉角度研究贸易利益的空间分配问题,进而刻画其影响因素的作用程度。模型分析表明:(1)入世以来各省份贸易利益空间分配不均并且存在很大差距,主要是由促进竞争效应和选择效应导致的;(2)内循环的促进作用要大于外循环,并且二者在地区间也存在差异,东部省份的促进作用明显大于中西部省份,内循环对外循环的促进作用亦是如此;(3)劳动力人口、人均GDP和本地临界边际劳动需求越高,贸易成本越小的省份,单一影响因素的影响程度越大。

Since its accession to the WTO more than two decades ago,China has experienced tremendous growth in aggregate gains from trade,but behind the growth there is a huge spatial imbalance,and the problem of regional coordina⁃tion will follow.From the perspective of consumption,this paper builds a firm heterogeneity trade model that includes interprovincial trade and international trade to quantify the gains from provincial trade.It analyzes the spatial distribution of trade gains from the perspective of the sources of gains from trade,and evaluates the impact of its factors.We find that the imbal⁃anced distribution and the huge gap of provincial trade gains since China’s accession to the WTO has mainly been caused by the pro-competitive effect and selection effect.The promotion effect of the inner circulation is greater than that of the outer circulation,and there are also regional differences.The promotion effect of the eastern provinces is significantly grea⁃ter than that of the central and western provinces,and the same is true of the promotion effect of inner and outer circulation.The provinces with a higher labor population,per capita GDP and local marginal labor demand and lower trade costs are more likely to be affected by a single factor.