地方政府债务、金融稳定与政府支出效率的互动效应——基于2009-2018年省面板数据的联立方程分析

The Interactive Effects of Local Government Debt,Financial Stability and Government Expenditure Efficiency:An Analysis based on Simultaneous Equation Model from 2009 to 2018

使用2009~2018年中国30个省份(数据不包括西藏自治区和港澳台地区)的面板数据,探究地方政府债务、金融稳定与政府支出效率3者之间的互动效应。运用DEA测度省级政府支出效率,构建联立方程模型将3者纳入一个统一的分析框架。研究发现:3者之间存在显著的交互效应,地方政府债务规模的扩张会显著降低金融稳定性水平,而金融稳定性的下降会使政府支出效率下降,进而导致政府债务规模的进一步扩张。进一步划分不同区域探究3者间的关系,东部地区金融稳定对政府支出效率存在非线性影响,中西部地区地方政府债务对金融稳定存在非线性影响,但3者间的交互关系依旧成立。

This paper looks at the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2018 to explore the interaction effects between local government debt,financial stability,and government expenditure efficiency.It uses DEA to measure the efficiency of provincial government expenditures,constructs a simultaneous equation model to incorporate the three into a unified analysis framework.The research finds that there is a significant interaction effect between the three:the scale expansion of local government debt will significantly reduce the level of financial stability,while the decline of financial stability will reduce the efficiency of central government expenditures,which may lead to further expansion of local government debt.When further division is made between different regions to explore the relationship between the three,the research finds that in the eastern region,financial stability has a nonlinear effect on government expenditure efficiency,and in the central and western regions,local government debt has a nonlinear effect on financial stability,but the interaction between the three is still observable.