中国省域经济韧性发展水平评价

Evaluating the Evolution Patterns of Provincial Economic Resilience in China

经济韧性作为新兴发展理念反映了经济高质量发展的时代需求。从抵抗力、恢复力与进化力3个层面构建经济韧性发展综合评价指标体系,并对2010~2019年中国省域经济韧性发展水平进行测度,进而分析其时空分异特征与演进趋势,研究发现:(1)中国经济韧性发展水平整体呈上升趋势,其中,进化力表现良好,恢复力与抵抗力有待提升;(2)板块差异呈现“东部→东北部→中部→西部”阶梯分布特征;(3)2019年各省经济韧性发展水平差异较大,东部多数省份经济韧性发展具有领先优势,且部分省份经济韧性塑造出现抵抗力、恢复力与进化力三者不协调状态;(4)中国省域经济韧性发展的空间结构演化趋势呈现波动性的变化特征,并在东西方向上呈“中等→较低→低”水平梯度递减格局,各省在不同的阶段呈现出不同经济韧性类型的地方化特征,且省域经济韧性发展的空间依赖性程度呈现先上升后下降趋势。

As a new concept,regional economic resilience reflects the current prerequisites of high quality regional economic development.Based on the analytical framework of regional economic resilience measurement,this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system from three levels:resistance,recovery and evolution,and measures the development level of China's provincial economic resilience from 2010 to 2019,before analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics and evolution trends.The results show that the overall development level of China's economic resilience is on the rise,the evolution force is satisfactory while the recovery capacity and resistance potential need to be improved;The plate difference shows a stepwise declining tendency of“East→Northeast→Central→West”;There is a huge difference in the level of economic resilience among provinces in 2019,and most eastern provinces have a leading advantage in economic resilience development.And the economic resilience in some provinces is constrained by the imbalance between resistance,recovery and evolution;The evolution of the spatial structure of provincial economic resilience shows a dynamic trend:a“medium→lower→low”horizontally decreasing pattern is observable in the east-west direction,with each province exhibiting a distinctive degree of economic resilience at a specific stage,and their spatial dependence showing an increasing and then declining trend.