灾后ATIS对城市道路交通网络韧性的影响

Study on the impact of ATIS on the resilience of urban road traffic network after a disaster

灾后先进出行者信息系统(advanced traveler information system,ATIS)能及时为使用者提供交通信息,而非ATIS使用者只能根据自身历史经验调整路径。为了探究两类用户混合情景下的路网韧性,在韧性评价中引入了动态时间维度,构建了两类用户混合日变动态配流模型,提出了基于历史流量的ATIS信息预测方法,并设计了模型求解算法。算例分析表明,所提出的ATIS信息预测方法与经典的ATIS信息预测方法相比,在研究时域内,前者支持下的平均路网韧性值相比后者提升了2.48%;针对路网韧性最优,最佳的ATIS市场占有率约为30%;当ATIS市场占有率为50%、75%、100%时,增大ATIS信息误差可提升路网韧性值,但当市场占有率为25%时,ATIS信息误差增大将导致路网韧性值降低。

The post-disaster Advanced Traveler Information System(ATIS)can provide its users with traffic information in a timely manner,while non-ATIS users can only adjust their routes according to their own historical experience.In order to explore the road network resilience in a mixed scenario of two types of users,this paper introduces the dynamic time dimension into the resilience evaluation,constructs a mixed day-to-day dynamic flow distribution model of two types of users,proposes an ATIS information prediction method based on historical traffic,and designs a model solving algorithm.The simulation results show that,compared with the classical ATIS information prediction method,the average road network resilience supported by the proposed ATIS information prediction method increases by 2.48%in the research time domain.For the best road network resilience,the best ATIS market share is about 30%.When the market share of ATIS is 50%,75%and 100%,the increase of ATIS information error improves the road network resilience value,while when the market share is 25%,the increase of ATIS information error reduces the road network resilience value.