基于AHM-CRITIC组合赋权贝叶斯的南湾水库水质评价与影响因素分析

Water Quality Evaluation and Influencing Factor Analysis of Nanwan Reservoir with a Bayesian Model Based on AHM-CRITIC Combination Weighting

针对传统贝叶斯模型将各评价因子“等权重”、忽略了各评价因子对水质贡献差异性的问题,在传统贝叶斯模型的基础上引入AHM-CRITIC组合赋权,构建基于AHM-CRITIC组合赋权的贝叶斯水质评价模型,并基于南湾水库2012—2020年库区断面和主要入库支流逐月水质实测数据,定量分析南湾湖水质与主要入库支流水质类别,并与其他方法进行对比分析。研究发现:①2012—2015年,南湾湖水质基本维持Ⅲ类标准,2016—2020年,偶有时段不满足Ⅲ类标准,甚至出现Ⅳ类水,董家河断面水质较差,小浉河断面、谭家河断面、五道河断面、席家河断面等水质较好;②组合赋权贝叶斯水质评价模型与单因子指数法和改进内梅罗指数法的结果更吻合,克服了主观赋权贝叶斯法的缺点。说明该模型能更真实反映南湾湖水质,可为同类水质评价提供技术依据。

In a traditional Bayesian model,equal weights are assigned to different evaluation factors,and the difference in their contributions to water quality is thereby ignored.To address this problem,this paper introduces the attribute hierarchy model-criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(AHM-CRITIC)combination weighting on the basis of a traditional Bayesian model and constructs a Bayesian model for water quality evaluation based on AHM-CRITIC combination weighting.The water quality of Nanwan Lake and the water quality grades of the main tributaries inflowing into Nanwan Reservoir are quantitatively analyzed with the model by using measured monthly water quality data of reservoir sections and main inflow tributaries from 2012 to 2020,and the results are compared with those of other methods.The following findings are obtained.①From 2012 to 2015,Nanwan Lake basically maintained the water quality at the Class III standard.However,from 2016 to 2020,the water quality did not meet the Class III standard occasionally,with water of ClassⅣeven appearing.The water quality of the Dongjiahe section was poor,while the water quality of the Xiaoshihe,Tanjiahe,Wudaohe,and Xijiahe sections was good.②The results of the Bayesian model with combination weighting for water quality evaluation are more consistent with those of the single factor index method and the improved Nemerow index method.Overcoming the shortcomings of the subjectively weighted Bayesian method,the proposed model can reflect the water quality of the reservoir more realistically and provide a technical basis for similar water quality evaluation.