引水隧洞盾构法施工风险源辨识与分析

Identification and Analysis of Risk Sources in Shield Tunneling of Diversion Tunnel

引水隧洞所处地质环境多变,加之盾构施工是一个复杂的施工过程,其风险概率高,风险难以预测,并且风险带来的经济损失、人身伤害不可估量。寻找引水隧洞盾构施工中可能出现的风险源并进行分析,有助于保障隧洞工程安全施工。针对某引水隧洞,利用WBS-RBS法构建风险矩阵,进行隧洞盾构施工风险源辨识,然后通过层次分析法,确定隧洞各风险因素的权重,得出各个风险因素对隧洞盾构施工进度的影响程度,根据影响程度制定相应的风险控制措施,使隧洞盾构施工安全管理从事后补救变为事前预防,降低了风险发生的概率,提高隧洞盾构施工安全管理的水平。

As the geological environment of the diversion tunnel is changeable,and shield construction is a complex construction process,the risk probability is high,the risk is difficult to predict,and the economic loss and personal injury caused by the risk are immeasurable.Loo⁃king for and analyzing the possible risk sources in shield construction of diversion tunnel is helpful to ensure the safe construction of tunnel engineering.In this paper,for a diversion tunnel,the WBS⁃RBS method was used to build a risk matrix,identify the risk sources of tunnel shield construction through the study of the matrix,and then determined the weight of each risk factor of the tunnel through the Analytic Hier⁃archy Process,obtained the impact degree of each risk factor on the progress of tunnel shield construction,and formulated corresponding risk control measures according to the impact degree,so as to provide effective management methods for tunnel shield construction.It made the safety management of tunnel shield construction from post remediation to pre prevention,reduced the probability of risk occurrence,and im⁃proved the level of safety management of tunnel shield construction.