基于复杂网络的闭环供应链风险传播模型构建及仿真

Construction and Simulation of Closed-loop Supply Chain Risk Propagation Model Based on Complex Network

根据闭环供应链的结构特征,设计闭环供应链演化网络,并从风险对抗能力出发改进灾害蔓延动力学模型,以构建闭环供应链风险传播模型。仿真结果表明:闭环供应链网络中的风险传播范围与初始风险值、初始攻击节点数量成正相关;网络对抗风险能力与节点企业风险阈值和风险恢复能力分布的平均程度成正相关,且只有当风险阈值系数超过关键风险阈值系数时才能有效控制和预防风险的传播;度大蓄意攻击与随机攻击比度小蓄意攻击对网络风险传播的影响大,且制造商作为闭环供应链网络的中心节点,当其受到风险攻击时对网络造成的影响较大。

In this paper,according to the structural characteristics of the closed-loop supply chain,we designed the evolution network of the closed-loop supply chain,and improved the disaster spreading dynamics model from the angle of risk confrontation ability so as to build the risk propagation model of the closed-loop supply chain.Then through a simulation study,we found that the scope of risk propagation in the closed-loop supply chain network is positively correlated with the initial value and the number of initial attack nodes of the risk;the risk confrontation ability of the network is positively correlated with the average risk threshold and risk recovery ability distribution of the nodal enterprises,and only when the risk threshold coefficient exceeds the key risk threshold coefficient can the propagation of risk be effectively controlled and prevented;and high degree-centrality deliberate attacks and random attacks have greater impact on the risk propagation of the network than the low degree-centrality random attacks do,and the manufacturer,as the central node of the closed-loop supply chain network,will more seriously affect the network when it is attacked by a risk.