西宁地区强对流天气预报指标研究

Study on Forecast Index of Severe Convective Weather in Xining Area

利用常规气象观测资料,结合天气学诊断和统计学方法,分析了西宁地区2010—2019年强对流天气的时空分布、环境物理量和雷达回波特征,结果表明:(1)西宁地区强对流天气多发生于7—8月,大通出现强对流天气次数最多,冰雹发生次数最多,雷暴大风发生次数最少;(2)将西宁地区强对流天气的形势背景分成3类,建立了中尺度概念模型;(3)探空图上水汽类参数、层结稳定度类参数、能量类参数和垂直风切变上对不同类型的强对流天气均有不同程度的反映;(4)雷达回波图上的反射率因子、径向速度及多种雷达产品对不同类型的强对流天气有不同的指示意义。研究结果为西宁地区强对流天气的潜势预报和临近预报提供了科学依据。

This paper uses conventional meteorological observation data,combined with synoptic diagnosis and statistical methods,to analyze the space-time distribution,environmental physical quantities and radar echo characteristics of the strong convective weather in Xining region from 2010 to 2019.The results show that:(1)The strong convective weather in Xining region mostly occurs in July to August,with the largest number of occurrences in Datong,the largest number of hail occurrences,and the smallest number of thunderstorms and gales.(2)The situation background of the severe convective weather in Xining area is divided into three categories,and a mesoscale conceptual model is established.(3)Water vapor parameters,stratification stability parameters,energy parameters and vertical wind shear parameters on the sounding map reflect different types of severe convective weather in varying degrees.(4)The reflectivity factor,radial velocity and various radar products on the radar echo map have different indications for different types of severe convective weather.The research results provide a scientific basis for the potential forecast and approaching forecast of severe convective weather in Xining area.