考虑风险规避和需求响应的电力市场可再生能源综合交易决策研究

Research on comprehensive trading decision of renewable energy in power market considering the risk aversion and demand response

可再生能源在电力市场供给端所占比例逐步扩大,而其供给不确定性将提升电力市场交易风险。在此背景下,考虑日前电价和供给不确定性,提出了一种综合交易策略。首先,可再生能源聚合体采用需求响应来应对电力生产的不确定性,并综合考虑合同结算价格、激活需求响应费用与需求响应运营商签订合同,再根据需求转移功率。需求响应转换到不同时间的成本将由合同功率保证,无需考虑其最终使用情况。然后,运营商通过非合同需求响应参与日前市场交易,进一步提高其收益。最后,通过条件风险价值(CVaR)来评估预期成本波动性,将风险规避纳入决策模型中,避免过度保守的交易方案。在测试系统对所提出的决策方法进行了评估,验证了方法的有效性,结果表明该方法可在降低相关风险的同时增加不同市场主体的预期收益。

The proportion of renewable energy in the supply side of the electricity market is gradually expanding,whilst its supply uncertainty increases the risk of electricity market trading.Under the background,an integrated trading strategy is proposed considering the day‑ahead electricity price and supply uncertainty.Firstly,renewable energy aggregators utilize the demand response to deal with the uncertainty of electricity production.Then,they make a contract with demand response operators by comprehensively considering the contractual settlement price and activation charge of demand response.After that,the power is transferred according to demand.The cost of demand response switching to different times is decided by the contracted power,no need to consider when and where they will be used.Secondly,the operator participates in day‑ahead market transactions through non‑contractual demand response and further increases its revenue.Finally,the conditional value‑at‑risk(CVaR)by assessing expected cost volatility.Thereby,the risk aversion is incorporated into the decision model to avoid overly conservative trading scenarios.In the end,the proposed decision method is evaluated in a test system to validate the effectiveness of the method.It is shown that the proposed method can increase the expected returns of different market participants while reducing the associated risks.