数字经济驱动制造业高质量发展的增长效应——基于中国数字经济与制造业的实证检验

The Growth Effect of High-quality Manufacturing Development Driven by Digital Economy——Empirical Test Based on China’s Digital Economy and Manufacturing Industry

数字经济已成为推动实体经济增长的重要动能。本文使用中国数字经济与制造业1999年至2018年的相关数据,测度数字经济和制造业高质量发展水平,并在理论分析的基础上实证检验数字经济对制造业高质量发展的影响及其作用机制。研究表明,中国数字经济发展水平整体呈现上升趋势,1999年至2006年期间表现为匀速增长,2007年至2018年期间,增长速度整体呈现出逐步加快趋势。中国制造业高质量发展指数总体呈逐步攀升态势,1999年至2007年期间表现为平稳增长,2008年至2010年出现轻微回落,2011年至2018年呈现加速发展态势,数字经济发展水平对我国制造业高质量发展的影响显著为正。因此,政府应继续加大对数字经济与制造业融合发展的支持力度,推动制造业高质量发展,彻底解决中国制造业“早熟型增速放缓”的窘境。

The digital economy has become an important driving force for real economic growth.This paper uses the data of China’s digital economy and manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2018 to measure the high-quality development level of digital economy and manufacturing industry,and empirically tests the impact of digital economy on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry and its mechanism based on theoretical analysis.The research shows that the development level of China’s digital economy is on the rise as a whole.From 1999 to 2006,it grew at a constant rate,and from 2007 to 2018,the growth rate gradually accelerated.The quality development index of China’s manufacturing industry showed a steady increase from 1999 to 2007,a slight decline from 2008 to 2010,and an accelerated development from 2011 to 2018.The development level of digital economy has significantly positive influence on the high-quality development of Chinese manufacturing industry.Therefore,the government should continue to increase support for the integrated development of digital economy and manufacturing industry,promote the high-quality development of manufacturing industry,and completely solve the problem of“precocious slowdown in growth”of China’s manufacturing industry.