基于面板门槛回归的物流效率提升对经济增长贡献研究

Study on the Contribution of Logistics Efficiency Improvement to Economic Growth Based on Panel Threshold Regression

长江经济带作为我国最具实力和发展前景的经济区域,研究其物流效率提升对经济增长的动态影响具有重要意义。通过超效率SBM模型和熵权-TOPSIS模型测算2005—2020年长江经济带的物流效率和经济综合发展水平,运用固定效应模型及面板门槛回归模型,探究物流效率提升对经济增长的贡献,并通过系统GMM模型验证研究方法的合理性和结论的稳健性。结果表明:2005—2020年,长江经济带物流效率与经济综合发展水平保持基本一致的变动趋势;物流效率、技术效率和规模效率对经济增长的贡献均存在门槛效应,规模效率和技术效率在促进经济增长的过程中存在相互替代关系;技术效率对经济增长的贡献最为显著,当技术效率大于第二门槛值1.004时,每提升1单位,带动经济增长0.340个单位。

The Yangtze River Economic Belt is the most powerful and promising economic region in China.It is of great significance to study the dynamic impact of the improvement of logistics efficiency on economic growth.Based on the super-efficiency SBM model and Entropy-TOPSIS model to calculate the logistics efficiency and economic development level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020,the contribution of logistics efficiency improvement to economic growth is explored by using the fixed effect regression model and panel threshold model.The system GMM model proves the rationality of the research method and the robustness of the conclusion.The results show that:from 2005 to 2020,the logistics efficiency and the economic development level keep the same trend in the Yangtze River Economic Belt;logistics efficiency,technical efficiency and scale efficiency all have threshold effect on the development of economic growth,and there is a substitute relationship between logistics scale efficiency and technical efficiency in the process of promoting the development of low carbon economy;the technical efficiency has the most significant contribution on the development of economic growth.When the technical efficiency is greater than the second threshold value of 1.004,every 1 unit increase will promote the development level of economy to increase 0.340 units.