旅游业发展与经济增长——基于海南省18市县的面板数据

Tourism Development and Economic Growth:Based on Panel Data of 18 Cities and Counties in Hainan Province

基于2005—2018年海南18个市县的面板数据,采用误差修正模型分析海南旅游业发展水平与海南经济增长关系的长短期效应。结果:海南旅游饭店接待国内、入境过夜游客人数对海南经济发展的影响分别为正、负;各市县旅游业发展水平与经济发展的关系各有成因与特色;长期均衡方程结果显示旅游业发展水平对海南东中西部地区的经济发展影响差异较大。结论:提出海南旅游业发展应优先发展国内市场、东部地区长期内应瞄准国际市场等建议。

Based on the panel data of 18 cities and counties in Hainan from 2005 to 2018,this paper uses error correction model to analyze the long term and long term effects of the relationship between Hainan tourism development level and Hainan economic growth.Results:The number of domestic tourists and inbound overnight tourists received by Hainan tourist hotels has a positive and negative impact on Hainan’s economic development;The relationship between tourism development level and economic development in each city and county has its own causes and characteristics;The results of the long term equilibrium equation show that the level of tourism development has a great difference in the economic development of eastern,central and western Hainan.Conclusion:It is suggested that Hainan tourism should give priority to the development of the domestic market,and the eastern region should aim at the international market in the long run.