绿色税收、产业结构升级与长三角地区碳排放——基于动态空间杜宾模型的实证分析

Green Tax,Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emissions in the Yangtze River Delta——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

基于长三角地区27个城市2005—2019年的面板数据构建动态空间杜宾模型,探究绿色税收、产业结构升级对碳排放的影响。在此基础上,采用有调节的中介效应模型来揭示技术创新在三者之间的作用。结果表明:(1)长三角地区碳排放呈现出显著的空间正相关性和空间溢出效应;(2)绿色税收对碳排放的影响是先抑制后促进的“U”型非线性关系,产业结构升级对碳排放有显著的抑制作用;(3)绿色税收通过产业结构升级对碳排放有间接的抑制作用;(4)在绿色税收对产业结构升级以及产业结构升级对碳排放的影响关系中,技术创新均起到了显著的调节作用。

A dynamic spatial Durbin model is constructed based on panel data of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005—2019 to explore the effects of green taxes and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions.Based on this,a moderated mediating effect model is used to reveal the role of technological innovation among the three.The results show that:(1)Carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region show significant positive spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects;(2)The impact of green taxes on carbon emissions is a“U”shaped non-linear relationship that inhibits and then promotes carbon emissions,and the upgrading of industrial structure has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions;(3)Green taxes have an indirect inhibiting effect on carbon emissions through industrial structure upgrading;(4)Technological innovation plays a significant moderating role in the relationship between green taxes and industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions.