淮河生态经济带城市多维度收缩测度与影响因素分析

Multi-dimensional shrinkage measurement and influencing factors analysis of cities in Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt

基于人口、经济、社会和环境四个维度构建指标体系,测度淮河生态经济带在综合维度和单一维度上的城市收缩程度,利用双栏模型识别各维度城市收缩的影响因素。结果显示:2010—2019年淮河生态经济带在综合维度发生收缩的有连云港市、济宁市等5座城市,其主要影响因素为城市类型和人力资本水平;在人口维度发生收缩的有盐城市、连云港市等8座城市,主要影响因素为城市类型、生态保护水平、基础设施水平、财政透支程度和失业程度;在经济维度上发生收缩的有连云港市、济宁市等7座城市,主要影响因素为收入水平和生态保护水平;在社会维度上发生收缩的有淮南市、淮北市等9座城市,主要影响因素为财政透支程度、失业程度和老龄化程度;在环境维度上发生收缩的有亳州市、漯河市等6座城市,主要影响因素为产业结构水平、基础设施水平、失业程度和老龄化程度。以此为基础,为缓解淮河生态经济带城市收缩提出了因地制宜“盘活存量”、把握战略定位以及推进基本公共服务共建共享的政策建议。

Based on the four dimensions of population,economy,society and environment,the index system was constructed to measure the degree of urban contraction in the comprehensive dimension and the single dimension of Huaihe Ecological Economic Belt,and the influencing factors of urban contraction in each dimension were identified by using the two-column model.The results show that five cities,including Lianyungang city and Jining city,etc.have contracted in the comprehensive dimension of Huaihe River ecological economic Belt from 2010 to 2019,and the main influencing factors are city type and human capital level.In the population dimension,8 cities such as Yancheng and Lianyungang shrank,and the main influencing factors were city type,ecological protection level,infrastructure level,financial overdraft degree and unemployment degree.In terms of economic dimension,7 cities,including Lianyungang city and Jining city,have contracted,and the main influencing factors are income level and ecological protection level.In the social dimension,9 cities such as Huainan city and Huaibei City have contracted,and the main influencing factors are financial overdraft degree,unemployment degree and aging degree.In the dimension of environment,six cities such as Bozhou city and Luohe city have contracted,and the main influencing factors are industrial structure level,infrastructure level,unemployment degree and aging degree.Based on this,in order to alleviate the urban shrinkage of the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt,policy suggestions are put forward,such as“reviving the stock”according to local conditions,grasping the strategic positioning,and promoting the co-construction and sharing of basic public services.