分析师跟踪何以影响并购绩效?——基于有调节的中介效应识别

Does Analyst Following Affect the M&A Performance?Based on the Moderated Mediation Effect Identification

本文以2010—2017年A股市场发生并购的上市公司为研究对象、2010—2020年为并购绩效的时间区间,通过构建有调节的中介效应模型,实证研究分析师跟踪对并购绩效的影响,并揭示股票错误定价在其中所发挥的中介效应和投资者情绪的调节作用。研究结果表明,相较于没有分析师跟踪的情境,有分析师跟踪的主并公司并购绩效更差,而且股票错误定价在其中起到不完全中介作用。此外,研究还发现投资者情绪对分析师跟踪与股票错误定价具有正向调节关系,即前半路径存在有调节的中介效应。

Targeting the M&A listed companies in the A-share market from 2010 to 2017, the paper empirically explores the influence of analyst following on the M&A performance through the construction of a moderated mediation effect model during the period of the M&A performance from 2010 to 2020. Further, it reveals the mediating effect of stock mispricing and the moderating role of investor sentiment in this process. The results show that the M&A performance in the acquiring firms with analyst following is worse than those without analyst following, and the stock mispricing plays an incomplete intermediary role in them. In addition, the study also finds out that investor sentiment has a positive moderating relationship with analyst following and stock mispricing, in which a moderated mediation effect operates in the first half of the path.