考虑省际贸易结构的中国碳排放变化的驱动因素分析

Analysis of the Driving Forces of Changes in China’s CO_(2) Emissions Considering Inter-provincial Trade Structure

中国是二氧化碳排放大国且具有较强的减排决心,其碳排放增长的驱动因素受到广泛关注。已有研究较少考虑国内区域间贸易结构变化的影响,而随着经济发展,该因素显得愈发重要。为此,本研究纳入省际贸易结构,采用基于中国省级多区域投入产出模型的两阶段六因素结构分解分析方法,探究2002-2012年这一重要发展时期内中国碳排放变化的驱动因素。结果表明,2007-2012年期间,省际贸易结构变化呈高碳化态势;最终需求规模对碳排放增长的促进作用由2002-2007年期间的出口及东部投资拉动为主,转变为各省份投资的普遍拉动。部门层面,电力生产的碳排放强度持续改善,非金属矿物制品、金属压延和加工品等也有不同程度改善;但建筑业与服务业用电量有所上升。未来,可将生产侧碳排放强度和生产技术改善与需求侧需求主体偏好的倒逼相结合,并促进地区间基于产业链的低碳发展合作。

China is a major CO_(2) emitter and has a strong determination to reduce its CO_(2) emissions. Therefore, the driving forces for the increase in its emissions have caused attention widely. Meanwhile, the inter-regional trade structure has become a potential significant factor for China’s emission growth, which has not been investigated in the existing studies. To this end, this study takes changes in the inter-provincial trade structure into consideration and adopts a two-stage six-factor structural decomposition analysis method based on China’s provincial multi-regional input-output model to explore the driving forces for the increase in China’s CO_(2) emissions during the important development period of 2002-2012. Results show that during the period 2007-2012, changes in the structure of inter-provincial trade showed a carbon-intensive trend. The upward emission effects from the growth in the scale of final demand were mainly driven by exports as well as investment in the eastern provinces during the period 2002-2007, but driven mainly by increases in provincial investment in the following period. At the sectoral level, the CO_(2) intensity of electricity production had been continuously improved during the study period, and that of the production of non-metallic mineral products, metal rolled and processed products had also been improved to a certain extent. However, electricity consumption in the construction and service industries had increased. In the future, measurements for improving CO_(2) intensity and production technology on the production side could be combined with guidance of consumption preference on the demand side. Meanwhile, low-carbon development cooperation based on the inter-regional industrial chain could also play a role in reducing China’s CO_(2) emissions.