基于缓冲账户差异配置的关键链项目动态集成监控

Dynamic Integration Monitoring and Control Based on Buffer Accounting Differential Configuration

缓冲监控是关键链项目管理方法的核心内容,考虑不同活动的工期特点对缓冲区域进行差异划分,对提高缓冲监控的效率至关重要。基于此,本文提出了一种基于缓冲账户差异配置的动态集成缓冲监控方法。新方法将项目缓冲对风险的吸收视为一种时间投资,根据风险分层思想和活动敏感信息区别了不同活动对应的缓冲账户数量,对活动的监控区域数进行了差异化设置,并以缓冲动态吸收风险过程中的账户可消耗总量最大化为目标构建了账户数额最优配置决策模型,定量划分了不同监控区域对应的范围,形成了动态集成缓冲监控体系。实验结果表明,本文方法在监控区域频数分布、实际工期超过计划工期的概率、缓冲平均消耗比率、平均缓冲监控成本和行动预警比率这五个绩效方面的结果与现有方法相比更优,克服了现有监控方法的不足,提高了缓冲的管理效率。

Buffer monitoring is the core content of the critical chain project management method. Existing buffer monitoring methods, which ignore the differences in the setting of trigger points for different activities and lack a quantitative study on the buffer area division, result in the efficiency of buffer management. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a dynamic integrated buffer monitoring method based on buffer accounting differential configuration. The proposed method treats the absorption of risks by project buffer as a kind of time investment. According to the risk tiering idea and activity sensitivity information, the number of buffer accounts corresponding to different activities is distinguished and the number of monitoring areas for activities is set differently. On this basis, an optimal allocation decision model for buffer account amounts is constructed with the goal of maximizing the total amount of consumable buffer in the process of buffering dynamic risk absorption, quantitatively dividing the corresponding ranges of different monitoring areas. Finally, a dynamic integrated buffer monitoring system is established to control the project risk. The experimental results show that the proposed method performs better than the existing methods in five indicators, such as monitoring area frequency distribution, probability of construction being completed earlier than planned, average buffer consumption ratio, average buffer monitoring cost and action warning ratio, which improves the efficiency of the buffering management.