基于主成分分析法的城中村居民社会脆弱性评估——以武汉市洪山区为例

Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Urban Villages Based on Principal Component Analysis:Taking Hongshan,Wuhan as An Example

脆弱性经常与风险、危害相关联,是灾害研究中运用的重要概念。在城市化和气候变化背景下,评估区域脆弱性水平,识别脆弱人群是我国防灾减灾事业的重要环节。选取武汉市洪山区的城中村居民作为调查对象,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的“暴露性-敏感性-适应能力”分析框架构建自然灾害的社会脆弱性评价指标体系,利用问卷调查法获取数据。在主成分分析法(PCA)确定指标权重的基础上,通过加权综合评价法评估居民的社会脆弱性水平。结果显示该区域城中村居民处于较为脆弱的状态,且其脆弱性分布不均匀,呈现“中间多,两头少”的特点,结构性差异显著,而且适应能力较低是导致居民脆弱的重要原因。还显示不同年龄、户口类型和收入的居民脆弱性差异明显。农村户口居民脆弱性高于城镇户口居民,且农村人口的敏感性偏高、适应能力较低,在面对灾害和风险时,更容易受到冲击;随着年龄增加,个体适应外部风险的能力下降,但在敏感性方面,结果却显示部分城中村的青年群体相较而言处于较高水平;收入水平提高对降低居民社会脆弱性有积极影响,政策制定者可以根据不同收入群体的特点采取行之有效的降低脆弱性的策略。另外,女性的社会脆弱性整体只略高于男性,且从暴露性、敏感性和适应能力三方面来看性别间的差异并不明显。

Vulnerability is often associated with risks and hazards,and is an important concept used in disaster management research.In the context of urbanization and climate change,assessing regional vulnerability and identifying vulnerable groups is an important part of disaster prevention and mitigation.This research focuses on the residents of urban villages in the Hongshan District of Wuhan City,constructs the social vulnerability evaluation index system of natural disasters according to the“exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity”framework from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),and uses the questionnaire survey method to obtain the data.On the basis of determining the index weights by principal component analysis(PCA),the social vulnerability of residents is evaluated by the weighted comprehensive evaluation method.The results show that the residents of urban villages in the Hongshan District are relatively vulnerable.And the vulnerability distribution is unbalanced,showing the characteristics of“more in the medium vulnerable level and less at both of high and low vulnerable level”,with significant structural differences,and low adaptive capacity is an important factor leading to their vulnerability.Moreover,there are differences in the vulnerability of residents in different ages,hukou types,and income levels but no distinct differences in gender.The results also show that the vulnerability of rural residents is higher than that of urban residents,in addition,the rural residents have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity,and they are more vulnerable in the face of shocks and external pressures like disasters and risks;as age increases,the adaptive capacity to external risks decreases,however,in terms of sensitivity,some youth groups in urban villages are at an astonishingly high level;and the increase of income level has a positive impact on reducing the social vulnerability of residents in urban villages,decision-makers can provide practical strategies for reducing the vulnerability of different income groups.The overall social vulnerability of females is slightly higher than that of males,but with no significant differences in exposure,sensitivity,and adaptive capacity with gender.