中美博弈背景下周边战略环境变化与中国周边战略塑造

China’s Changing Strategic Environment in the Neighborhood and Its Strategy Shaping in the Sino-US Competition

自2013年党中央召开周边外交工作座谈会以来,中国周边地区已成为共建命运共同体最集中的区域、实施“一带一路”倡议重点合作区域以及不同文明互学互鉴和中国软实力辐射的重点区域。然而,2017年美国发起对华战略竞争、新冠肺炎疫情暴发和乌克兰危机以来,中国周边战略环境面临一系列新挑战。第一,美国以“印太战略”对中国周边安全和经济环境进行双重塑造;第二,乌克兰危机给中国周边战略环境带来新的不稳定性和不确定性;第三,中美博弈叠加疫情和乌克兰危机引发对华供应链重组;第四,周边国家在中美博弈中的对华态度可能进一步分化。基于此,中国应围绕打造周边命运共同体这一战略目标积极塑造周边战略环境。秉持“优先东盟,深化俄罗斯中亚,改善南亚,推动韩日”的战略思路,积极处理好同周边国家的关系。在战略举措上,加强开放合作,抓住“战略时间差”,将周边地区打造成新发展格局战略节点和高质量共建“一带一路”的示范区;创新战略思维,积极探索建构周边安全合作体系,妥善处理热点敏感问题;加强人文交流,夯实民意基础,增强中国与周边国家关系的韧性。

Since the CPC Central Committee held the symposium on China’s Neighborhood Diplomacy in2013,China’s neighborhood has become the most concentrated area for building a community with a shared future,the key cooperation area for implementing the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),and the key area for mutual learning among civilizations and the radiation of China’s soft power.However,since the launch of the US strategic competition against China in 2017,as well as the outbreak of the COVID-19 and the emerging crisis in Ukraine,China’s strategic environment in the neighborhood has been confronted with a series of new challenges.First,the US has been implementing its“Indo-Pacific Strategy”to shape China’s neighboring security and economic environment.Second,the Ukraine crisis has brought new instability and uncertainty to China’s strategic environment.Third,the Sino-US competition,being emerging with the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis,has triggered the restructuring of the supply chain to China.Fourth,in the context of Sino-US competition,the neighboring countries’attitudes towards China may further diverge.Based on the situations,China should shape its neighboring strategic environment with the strategic goal of building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries.China should actively manage its relations with the neighboring countries,following the strategic idea of“prioritizing its relations with the ASEAN,deepening its relations with Russia and Central Asia,improving its relations with South Asia,and promoting its relations with Korea and Japan”.In terms of strategic measures,China should strengthen openness and cooperation,seize the“strategic time gap”,and build the neighboring countries into the strategic nodes in the new development pattern and the demonstration areas for high-quality development of the BRI.It requires innovating strategic thinking,actively exploring the construction of the neighborhood security cooperation system,and properly dealing with the hot and sensitive issues.Also,it requires strengthening people-to-people exchanges,consolidating the foundation of public opinion and enhancing the resilience of China’s relations with neighboring countries.