《巴黎协定》下全球气候治理的俱乐部模式及其功能和风险

Functions and Risks of the Club Approach for Climate Governance under the Paris Agreement

气候俱乐部是国外常年关注的气候合作方案,但很少有人直言俱乐部式治理能否创新性补充和完善《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的多边体制。规范型、论坛型、联合行动型等开放包容型俱乐部较能保障政治可行性、制度合法性,可缓解《巴黎协定》“大而弱”所导致的治理规制困境,实现国家间的合作增效,但分别存在沦为空谈、大国操纵、透明度低的风险。封闭排他的布坎南俱乐部政治可行性和制度合法性都比较低,制度设计要求高,较难建成,并存在背离多边规则、与协定相冲突的风险。总体来说,俱乐部式气候治理或能成为协定和公约框架的有益补充,但需警惕其弱化“共区”原则的风险,避免其沦为发达国家弱化和逃避气候责任的迂回手段。从引领气候治理和应对国际气候政治变局的角度出发,中国有必要关注俱乐部式气候治理,对开放包容型俱乐部保持开放态度,积极参与和创建;对封闭排他型俱乐部保持警惕,有所防范。

The Club Approach,particularly known as Climate Club,had long been praised as an effective cooperation approach by international scholars while few scholars examined deliberately whether it can facilitate the Multilateral Regime under the framework of the Paris Agreement.This paper pursues theoretical and practical explanations for the Club Approach’s potential in helping to implement and improve the framework of the Paris Agreement.The inclusive clubs including normative clubs,forum clubs and joint action clubs,with adequate feasibility and legitimacy may facilitate alleviating the problems rooted in the Paris Agreement,which has a large form but delivers a weak action.This approach may strengthen the corpo⁃rate synergy among sovereign states while contain the risks of becoming empty talks,being manipulated by power politics and inadequate of transparency.The exclusive Buchanan Club with low feasibility,inadequate legitimacy and harsh conditions is hard to establish,and may encounter exogenous risks pro⁃duced within the institutional fragmentation and conflicts.Generally speaking,the Club Approach may serve as a complement to the UNFCCC,while it is cautious to recognize that it may blur the differentiation between developed and developing countries,weaken the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibil⁃ities(CBDR)and can be a way for the developed countries to shirk their responsibility.Noting the urgency in regime innovation for taking the lead in global climate governance and the damage brought by turbulence in international climate politics,it is necessary for China to study deliberately on the new approach,stay open and active to the inclusive approach,while remain vigilant and precautious to the exclusive approach.