区域服务贸易协定与制造业隐含碳排放:效应及其影响机制

Services RTAs and Carbon Emission Embedded in Manufacturing:Effect and Impact Mechanism

缔结区域服务贸易协定来逐步推进服务贸易自由化是促进制造业绿色转型和低碳化发展的重要途径。本文利用1995—2009年40个经济体的投入产出数据、环境账户数据和区域服务贸易协定通报数据,系统考察了区域服务贸易协定对缔约方制造业隐含碳排放的影响方式及作用机制。结果表明,区域服务贸易协定显著降低了缔约方制造业的隐含碳排放水平。机制分析表明,区域服务贸易协定通过碳排放跨境转移的直接渠道,以及能耗效应、技术效应和替代效应三条间接渠道共同影响缔约方制造业的隐含碳排放水平。异质性分析表明,区域服务贸易协定缩小了缔约方不同制造业部门间的隐含碳排放差距,但是这种碳排放削减效应存在明显的行业异质性。此外,缔约方制度环境异质性对区域服务贸易协定的制造业隐含碳排放削减效应的发挥也具有差异化影响。最后,区域服务贸易协定不仅在缔约方不同制造业之间形成碳减排的循环“正反馈效应”,还有效降低了邻近经济体和高价值链关联度经济体的制造业隐含碳排放水平。本文的研究为中国进一步通过推进区域服务贸易自由化进程来降低制造业的隐含碳排放水平,进而实现制造业的绿色低碳发展提供了重要的实证基础和政策参考。

As of China's accession to the WTO in 2001,China,known as the"world's factory"and as a major exporter,has achieved astounding economic growth.However,the traditional extensive growth mode of high input,high consumption,and low output resulted in resource consumption and carbon dioxide emission.Excessive carbon dioxide emission causes ecological and environmental problems such as global warming,sea level rise,and frequent occurrence of extreme weather,which not only suppresses people's growing needs for a better life but also increases enormous international pressure for China to reduce emission in climate negotiation.As a result,it has great practical implications to conduct in-depth research on the issues of green development and low-carbon economic transition.As a"large manufacturing country",the manufacturing sectors in China can increase carbon dioxide emissions when contributing to GDP and creating jobs.The realization of the low-carbon development of China's manufacturing sectors depends on the supply of high-quality production factors,especially services inputs.The services trade liberalization is an effective way for a economy manufacturing sectors to obtain high-quality services intermediate inputs.International evidence also confirms that the gradual promotion of the services trade liberalization via the implementation of services RTAs,which can expand the supply of high-quality services inputs,is an achievable approach.This paper uses the input-output data,the environmental account data,and the services RTAs notification data of 40 economies from 1995 to 2009 and shows that the implementation of services RTAs has a significant reduction effect on the level of carbon emission embodied in downstream manufacturing.Mechanism analysis reveals that services RTAs reduce the level of carbon emission embodied in contracting party's manufacturing through the direct channel for the transnational transfer of carbon emission and three indirect channels of the energy consumption effect,the technology effect,and the allocation effect.However,we also observe significant national differences in the relevant channels.Further analysis indicates the heterogeneous carbon emission reduction effect of services RTAs on different manufacturing sectors.Meanwhile,the agreements'carbon emission reduction effect is heterogeneous in four aspects:technology gap,light and heavy industries,pollution degree,and product structure.Moreover,the reduction effect of services RTAs on the carbon emission embodied in downstream manufacturing is enhanced by the efficiency of government governance.The easing of financing constraints can also significantly improve the reduction effect of services RTAs in the manufacturing sectors.Finally,the extension analysis shows that there is a significant"geographical clustering"phenomenon in the level of carbon emission among different domestic manufacturing sectors,whereas the level of cross-economics carbon emission displays a significant negative spatial correlation.Also,services RTAs can not only significantly reduce the level of carbon emission embodied in the contracting parties'manufacturing but also produce significant carbon emission reduction effect on the manufacturing sectors of neighboring economics and economics with high value chain dependence.The findings of this paper provide the following policy implications.First,the government should actively promote the construction of a trade power,take the initiative to participate in the liberalization process of regional services trade,continuously improve the level of institutional opening in the services field by implementing services RTAs,expand the quality of services inputs,and steadily promote the clean and low-carbon development of the manufacturing sectors.Second,the Chinese government can consider further moderately increasing the degree of openness of services trade in the follow-up regional services trade liberalization negotiations in exchange for the same positive feedback from the other party through a higher level of agreement reciprocity and enhance the motivation of partner economics to implement the agreements.Third,the government should continue to deepen the reform of the market economy system by lowering the entry barriers for financial and other services industries,encouraging fair competition among market players,creating a stable,predictable,and transparent business environment for enterprises,and optimizing the industrial layout.At the same time,the government should also speed up the establishment of a domestic economic management system and a legal and regulatory system for domestic and foreign trade that are in line with the international high-standard services trade rules,so as to provide a sound domestic market and environment system.