安全化视角下尼罗河水资源争端与治理路径探析

The Nile Water Disputes and Its Governance:A Perspective of Securitization

21世纪以来,尼罗河流域主要国家埃及、苏丹和埃塞俄比亚等围绕水资源分配与开发争端升级。水资源总量不足与分配不均是水安全化的客观原因;资源民族主义与域外大国的介入是水安全化的主观原因。尼罗河水安全化呈现争端议题多元化、争端主体复杂化和力量对比动态化特征。埃及强调国际习惯法,积极寻求阿盟和美国支持;埃塞俄比亚强调“白板原则”,积极联合上游国家和非盟,完成复兴大坝兴建及第二期蓄水工程,现已正式启用发电。争端方通过“水安全化”对内塑造强有力政府形象,对外建立议题联盟,通过话语构建、政策实施和制度设计重塑水资源分配格局,影响国际规制,重塑水安全秩序,形成了上游集团与下游集团的对峙。尼罗河水争端治理,需要流域内各国对内淡化资源民族主义,对外避免被大国集团政治的绑架,站在“全球发展命运共同体”的高度,通过利益捆绑、分歧管控与议题合作实现水资源去安全化,推动尼罗河安全治理从“上游—下游分治”到“全流域共治”,打造南南合作的典范。

Since the 21st century,the disputes over the allocation and development of water resources among Egypt,Sudan,Ethiopia and other stake-holders in the Nile basin have escalated.The insufficient volume and uneven distribution of water resources are the objective reasons causing water security;resource nationalism and the intervention of extraterritorial powers are the subjective reasons.The Nile water security presents complex dispute issues,diversified dispute subjects and dynamic balance of power,forming four groups in rivalry:an established power,a revisionist power,a hedging power and a detached power.As a defender of water rights,Egypt emphasizes international customary law and actively seeks the support of the Arab League and the United States.As a water right revisionist country,Ethiopia emphasizes the “clean slate principle”and actively cooperates with the upstream countries and the African Union to complete the construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam and the secondphase water storage project through three stages of “keeping defensive”,“moving with the trend”and “shaping the trend”.Through the “water security”strategy,the established and revisionist countries shape a strong government image internally,establish an issue coalition externally,reshape the water resources distribution pattern through diplomatic discourse,policy implementation and system design,affecting international regulations,reshaping the water security order,and forming a confrontation pattern between upstream groups and downstream groups.The resolution of the Nile water dispute requires all countries in the basin to downgrade resource nationalism,transcend alliance politics,realize the de-security of water resources through interest binding,dispute management and issue cooperation,and promote the security governance of the Nile from “upstream-downstream separation”to the “whole basin co-governance”.