谁会成为中小学校长——基于教师两阶段职位晋升的事件史分析

Who Will Be Elementary and Secondary School Principals?An Event History Analysis Based on Two Stages of Teacher Promotion

中小学校长是我国基础教育事业发展中的中坚力量,担负着办学治校和立德树人的重要使命。本文基于对W市8914名教师调查数据,采用事件史分析方法分两阶段实证探究了“教师-校长”晋升过程。研究发现:(1)教师平均任教20.8年晋升为校长,“教师-中层”中平均任教11.31年晋升,平均晋升年龄为32.47岁,在“中层-校长”中平均任职14.83年晋升,平均晋升年龄为42.99岁;(2)“教师-校长”晋升中存在“理科晋升劣势”,“理科类”晋升概率比“文科类”低41.20%;(3)在第一阶段“教师-中层”晋升中,“小学科”晋升概率是“文科类”的1.31倍;在第二阶段“中层-校长”晋升中,“文科类”晋升概率分别是“理科类”和“小学科类”的1.58和1.36倍;(4)女性教师在晋升中处于劣势地位,在两个晋升阶段分别比男性教师的晋升概率低40.01%和48.16%;(5)党员教师存在晋升优势,在两个晋升阶段分别为非党员教师的3.54和10.31倍。研究分阶段探讨了校长职位晋升影响因素,为揭示晋升的内部机制提供了经验证据,也对当前我国中小学校长队伍建设具有启示意义。

Principals of primary and secondary schools are the backbone of China's basic education development,and they are responsible for the important mission of running schols and establishing moral education.Based on the survey data of 8914 teachers in city W,the study empirically investigated the promotion process of“Teacher-Principal”in two stages by using event history analysis.The study found that:(1)on average,teacher was promoted to principal after 20.8 years.The promotion of“Teacher-Middle Management”was after 11.31 years,and the average age of promotion was 32.47 years.The promotion of“Middle Management-Principal”was after 14.83 years,and the average age of promotion was 42.99 years.(2)There is a“science promotion disadvantage”in the promotion of“Teacher-Principal”,and the promotion probability of“science”teachers is 41.20%lower than that of“liberal arts”teachers.(3)In the promotion of“Teacher-Middle Management”,the probability of promotion for“small subjects”teachers is 1.31 times higher than for“liberal arts”teachers.In the promotion of“Middle Management-Principal”,“liberal arts”teachers are 1.58 and 1.36 times more likely to be promoted than“science”and“minor subjects”teachers.(4)Female teachers are at a disadvantage in promotion,as they are 40.01%and 48.16%less likely to be promoted than male teachers at the two promotion stages,respectively.(5)There is a promotion advantage for party teachers,who are 3.54 and 10.31 times more likely than non-party teachers at the two promotion stages,respectively.The study explored the factors of principal position promotion,providing empirical evidence to reveal the internal mechanism of principal position promotion and enlightening implications for the current principalship development in primary and secondary schools in China.