基于改进模糊层次分析法的生猪养殖场标准化综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Pig Farm Standardization Based on the Improved Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

为了提高评价指标权重的合理性,实现生猪养殖场标准化的合理评价,利用精确值、区间值、三角模糊数结合方法构建判断矩阵,采用模糊一致性矩阵避免一致性检验并提高权重精度,实现对模糊层次分析法的改进。建立一种基于改进模糊层次分析法、隶属度、欧式贴近度的生猪养殖场标准化评价模型,对3个不同养殖规模的猪场进行综合评价,分析了评价值(HI)与各猪场每年每头母猪出栏肥猪头数(MSY)的皮尔森相关性以及评价模型敏感度。结果表明,A、B、C生猪养殖场标准化处于不同水平,评价得分为HI_(A)=0.639、HI_(B)=0.675、HI_(C)=0.744,且与MSY_(A)=17.5、MSY_(B)=19.15、MSY_(C)=22.54为显著的正向影响关系。以MSY为分级标准,A和B猪场为4等水平,C猪场为2等水平,评价结果与实际相符,评价模型具有一定的合理性和有效性,且投资情况、场区规划、圈舍建筑、生产管理、生物安全因素权重的变动对最终评价结果的敏感性程度较高,需要注意其权重的量化问题。

In order to improve rationality of evaluation index weight and realize the reasonable evaluation of pig farm standardization,this paper used the combination method of precise value,interval value and triangular fuzzy number to construct the judgment matrix,and adopts the fuzzy consistency matrix to avoid the consistency test and improve weight precision to improve fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.An evaluation model of pig farm standardization based on improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,membership degree and European closeness degree was established,and comprehensive evaluation of three pig farms with different breeding scale was carried out.Pearson correlation between evaluation value and the number of fattening pigs per sow per year(MSY)was analyzed.And the sensitivity of the evaluation model is also analyzed.The results showed that the standardization of each pig farm was at different levels,and the evaluation scores were HI_(A)=0.639,HI_(B)=0.675,HI_(c)=0.744.It was significantly positively correlated with MSY_(A)=17.5,MSY_(B)=19.15,MSY_(C)=22.54.With MSY as the grading standard,pig farms A and B were rated at level 4,while pig farm C was rated at level 2.The evaluation results are consistent with the reality,and the evaluation model is reasonable and effective.Moreover,the changes of investment,site planning,enclosure construction,production management and biosafety factors are highly sensitive to the final evaluation results.