考虑分时定价的城轨乘客出发时间选择分析

Analysis of Departure Time Selection for Urban Rail Transit Passengers Considering Time-of-Use Pricing

为缓解城市轨道交通高峰期的客流拥挤,提高运营服务质量,本文从分时定价的角度,将折扣力度、转移时间和舒适性加入到随机效用最大化模型中。通过设计SP问卷开展调查,运用k-means聚类方法将乘客划分为标准通勤乘客、弹性通勤乘客、生活类乘客及低频出行乘客四类。运用SPSS软件进行数据分析,验证了不同类别乘客对票价折扣、转移时间和舒适度的敏感程度。进一步分析表明,随着转移时间的增加,票价折扣力度对乘客转移意愿影响逐渐减弱,当设定转移时间为5分钟时,合理票价折扣为7折;当转移时间为10分钟时,票价折扣建议为8折。据此,在制订峰前折扣票价时,要综合考虑票价折扣、转移时间和企业运营成本等多方面因素的影响。

In order to alleviate passenger congestion during peak hours of urban rail transit and improve operation service quality,this paper adds discount intensity,transfer time and comfort into the Random Utility Maximization(RUM)model from the perspective of time-sharing pricing.SP questionnaire was designed to carry out the survey.With the help of K-means clustering method,passengers were divided into standard commuter passengers,flexible commuter passengers,life passengers and low-frequency travel passengers.At the same time,discount intensity,transfer time and comfort were added into the RUM model by constructing the model.Finally,data analysis with the help of SPSS software verified the sensitivity of different categories of passengers to fare discount,transfer time and comfort.Further analysis showed that with the increase of transfer time,the impact of fare discounts on passengers'willingness to transfer gradually weakens,and when the transfer time is set for 5 minutes,the reasonable fare discount is 30%off,and when the transfer time is 10 minutes,the fare discount is recommended to be 20%off.Therefore,when formulating pre-peak discount fares,it is necessary to comprehensively consider the impact of various factors such as fare discounts,transfer times and operating costs of enterprises.