家庭购房资金获取渠道及影响因素

Household financing sources for house purchase and itsinfluencingfactors

来自银行的贷款和来自亲友等社会关系网络的借款是我国城市家庭购房资金主要获取渠道,但现有研究集中关注银行贷款、相对忽视非正规借款。利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2013年份数据,基于随机森林算法构建了城市家庭购房资金贷款决策和借款决策模型,并通过双变量Probit回归模型分析了购房资金借贷选择的多种影响因素。研究发现,我国城市家庭通过银行贷款购房的比例低于通过非正规借款购房的比例,绝大多数非正规借款来源于亲戚和朋友;在影响因素方面,住房特性、家庭的社会经济地位、资产状况和投资机会、文化观念和社会网络,以及生命周期阶段和家庭结构特征,均在不同程度上影响着家庭借贷选择,其中以住房属性和住房获取成本为代表的住房特性重要性最高、影响强度最大,其他因素则更多通过影响家庭对不同借贷方式的偏好而对购房信贷决策发挥次要作用。

Loans from banks and borrowings from social networks such as friends and relatives are the main financing sources of urban households in China for house purchase,but the existing studies have focused on bank loans and relatively neglected informal borrowings.Based on the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data in 2013,this paper applies the random forest algorithm to build a prediction model for the loan and borrowing choices of Chinese urban households for house purchase.Also analyzed are the influencing factors of financing choices for house purchase through Bivariate Probit regression model.The results show that the proportion of urban households purchasing houses through bank loans was lower than that through informal borrowing;the majority of informal borrowings came from relatives and friends.In terms of influencing factors,housing characteristics,household socioeconomic status,asset status and investment opportunities,cultural preference and social network,life cycle and household structure make varying influences on the household borrowing choices.Among them,housing attributes and housing acquisition costs have the highest importance and the strongest influence,while other factors play secondary roles in financing decisions for house purchase by affecting households'preferences for different borrowing methods.