货币政策预期管理的言行调控效应——基于商业银行的经验证据

The Effect of Communication and Action on Monetary Policy Expectation Management:Empirical Evidence from Commercial Banks

科学合理的货币政策预期管理是坚持稳中求进工作总基调的重要保障。基于货币政策预期管理调控机理的系统分析,构造指数探究货币政策预期管理中“沟通”和“行动”的实际调控效应。研究发现:货币政策预期管理的“沟通”和“行动”两类工具都能对银行信贷投放产生显著正向影响;言行一致有助于增强货币政策预期管理的调控效应,言行不一致则严重削弱“行动”的调控效应;中国人民银行对预期管理的重视、提升预期管理频率、提醒公众关注预期信号等,均能够显著提升预期管理的调控效应;经济增长高速阶段“行动”类工具效应较强,经济增长减速阶段“沟通”类工具效应较强;预期管理的“行动”类工具对各类型商业银行均具有显著影响,“沟通”类工具则未能有效影响地方法人银行的信贷投放。中央银行应逐步完善预期管理的政策框架,注重保持言行一致,培养公众敏感性,加大沟通力度,关注市场信号反馈,以有效应对当前预期转弱的压力。

Scientificmonetary policy expectation management is an important guarantee for adhering to the principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability.Based on the systematic analysis of the regulation mechanism of monetary policy expectation management,this paper constructs indexes to explore the actual regulation effect of“communication”and“action”in monetary policy expectation management.The findings show that both“communication”and“action”tools can have a significant positive impact on bank credit extension;consistency of communications and actions helps to enhance the regulatory effect of monetary policy expection management,while inconsistency of communications and actions seriously weakens the regulatory effect of“action”;the People’s Bank of China’s attention to expectation management,increasing the frequency of expectation management and reminding the public to pay attention to expectation signals can significantly improve the regulation effect of expectation management;the effect of“action”is strong in high growth period,but the“communication”is strong in low growth period;the“action”tools of expected management have a significant impact on all types of commercial banks,while the“communication”tools fail to affect the credit extension of local corporate banks.The central bank should gradually improve the policy framework of expectation management,pay attention to keeping communications consistent with actions,cultivate public sensitivity,strengthen communication,pay attention to market signal feedback,so as to effectively deal with the pressure of expectation weakening.