深圳市高学历人才迁入格局的时空演化与驱动因素——基于1980—2014年个体迁移大数据

Spatiotemporal pattern changes and driving factors of highly-educated immigrants in Shenzhen:Analysis based on microscale big data from 1980 to 2014

基于1980—2014年深圳市人口流动普查微观大数据,提取迁入深圳市具有本科及以上学历人才个体粒度数据,利用空间自相关分析人才迁入格局的时空演化,基于事件史分析方法探究影响近10 a人才迁移的多维驱动因素及人才政策调控机理,为完善区域人才政策提供决策支持。结果发现:(1)深圳市迁入高学历人才数量快速增长,群体年轻化、未婚化特点显著,城乡户籍结构差异持续缩小,省内邻近地区与长江中游城市群形成高值-高值集聚区域;(2)个体家庭情况、地理距离阻碍、城市社会结构等因素共同塑造迁移过程,来自人口数量少、人均GDP低、高等教育资源丰富地区的高学历人才具有更强烈的迁入意愿;(3)政策驱动力如深圳市2008—2012年实施的连续性审核制人才引进政策吸引人才迁入,不同阶段的人才政策对于不同属性人才群体的迁入行为具有显著的调节作用。

Highly-educated talents are not only the intellectual support for urban economic upgrading in the era of knowledge economy but also the important strategic resources for national and regional competition.Based on the microscale big data of the population in Shenzhen,we extract the data of the highly-educated immigrants who migrated to Shenzhen from 1980 to 2014.Using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and event history analysis,we explore the demographic characteristics and the spatial-temporal pattern changes of the high-educated immigrants after the reform and opening up,and investigate the driving factors influencing the individual migration decision-making in the past ten years,attempting to uncover the process of talent agglomeration in Shenzhen under different talents recruitment policy stages.The results found that:1)The number of highly-educated immigrants in Shenzhen has grown rapidly along with the younger and unmarried demographic characteristics,while the gap in the urban-rural household registration structure has been shrunk.The spatial agglomeration characteristics of the source districts of the highly-educated immigrants are significant as the adjacent areas within Guangdong as well as the Triangle of Central China formed high-high agglomeration and central cities dominated high-low agglomeration.2)Personal family factors,spatial obstacle factors and socioeconomic factors simultaneously shape the complex process of individual migration.People who are younger,holding urban registration and shorter geographical distance,engaged in industry,commerce and service industries and from areas with smaller population,lower per capita GDP,and more students in universities are more likely to immigrate.3)The continuous audit policy of talents recruitment implemented in Shenzhen from2008 to 2012 has effectively attracted the immigration of highly-educated talents,promoted the balance of the age structure of immigrant talents,and weakened the regional socioeconomical factors.The point-system evolution further fosters the equalization of the age structure and the transfer of talents between central cities.The results can provide decision support for the advanced recruitment of highly-educated immigrants and regional development in China.