社会资本、劳动力转移与农地抛荒——基于中国劳动力动态调查数据的实证分析

On Social Capital,Labor Transfer and Farmland Abandonment——Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of China Labor-force Dynamic Survey

农村劳动力转移背景下农地抛荒现象逐渐产生,抛荒面积持续扩张将严重威胁国家粮食安全。文章基于中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS),采用Probit和Tobit回归模型实证分析了社会资本对农地抛荒的影响,并引入劳动力转移作为中介变量构建中介效应模型。研究结果表明:(1)社会资本对农地抛荒具有显著的正向影响,社会资本越丰富的农户抛荒农地的可能性更大。(2)劳动力转移在社会资本对农地抛荒的正向关系中发挥部分中介作用,社会资本促进劳动力转移,从而间接导致农地抛荒现象加剧。(3)异质性分析结果显示,社会资本对传统农耕家庭、经营规模较大的家庭抛荒农地的影响更明显。因此,要采取有效措施应对社会资本对农地抛荒的不利影响,搭建农地流转平台,扶持新型农业经营主体发展,提高机械化水平,促进农地流转,实现农地资源优化配置。

Under the background of rural labor transfer,the phenomenon of abandoned farmland is gradually emerging,and the con⁃tinuous expansion of abandoned area can seriously threaten the national food security.Based on the data of China Labor Force Dy⁃namic Survey(CLDS),this paper uses Probit and Tobit regression models to empirically analyze the impact of social capital on ag⁃ricultural land abandonment,and introduces labor transfer as an intermediary variable to build an intermediary effect model.The results are as follows.(1)Social capital has a significant positive impact on farmland abandonment,and farmers with more social capital are more likely to abandon farmland.(2)Labor transfer plays a part of intermediary role in the positive relationship between social capital and farmland abandonment,and social capital promotes labor transfer,which indirectly leads to the intensification of farmland abandonment.(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that social capital has a more obvious impact on traditional farming fami⁃lies and those with larger operation scale.Therefore,effective measures should be taken to deal with the adverse impact of social capital on the abandonment of agricultural land,build a platform for the transfer of farmland,support the development of new agri⁃cultural business entities,improve the level of mechanization,promote the farmland transfer,and realize the optimal allocation of agricultural land resources.