湖北农垦棉花生产现状分析与发展对策研究

Current Situation Analysis and Research on the Development Countermeasures of Cotton Production in Hubei Agricultural Reclamation

作为长江流域最大的棉花产区和生产单位,探究湖北农垦棉花生产现状及成本收益的结构性、趋势性变化,对于提高棉花产业发展水平具有重要意义。文章基于2004—2020年湖北农垦棉花成本收益数据,运用VAR模型,分析了影响湖北农垦棉花种植净利润的主要因素及其动态变化。研究结果表明:湖北农垦棉花生产呈现逐年萎缩之势;人工成本的上升以及总产值的不稳定,是造成种植净利润为负值且不断下降的主要原因;棉花主产品产量和平均出售价格对净利润具有正向影响,而土地成本对净利润的影响则多为负向。据此提出了优化产业结构、加强政策扶持和技术创新、鼓励适度规模经营等政策建议,支撑引领湖北农垦棉花产业高质量发展。

As the largest cotton producing area and production unit in the Yangtze River basin,it is of great significance to explore the current situation of cotton production as well as its structural and trend changes of cost and income in Hubei agricultural recla⁃mation in terms of improving the development level of cotton industry.Based on the cost-benefit data of cotton cultivation in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2020,this paper uses VAR model to analyze the main factors affecting the net profit of cotton cultivation in Hubei Province and their dynamic changes.The results show that the cotton production in Hubei Agricultural Reclamation is shrinking annually;the rise of labor costs and the instability of total output value are the main reasons for the negative and declin⁃ing net profit of planting.The output of cotton products and its average price have a positive impact on the net profit,while the im⁃pact of land cost on net profit is mostly negative.Based on this,the paper puts forward policy suggestions such as optimizing indus⁃trial structure,strengthening policy support and technological innovation,and encouraging moderate scale operation to support and lead the high-quality development of cotton industry in Hubei Agricultural Reclamation.