澜湄合作机制下中国与湄公河流域国家农业经贸合作潜力研究

Research on the Potential of Agricultural Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Countries along Mekong River Under the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism

中国农业发展受到环境和资源的约束问题日益凸显,增长势头逐渐放缓。越南、泰国、缅甸、老挝和柬埔寨等湄公河流域传统农业大国,农业发展潜力巨大,但在农业发展过程中还受到投资和生产力等因素的制约,有必要加强与中国的合作。文章选择农业互补性、运输可达性和国家友好程度三个因素构建静态和动态潜力测算模型,利用中国和湄公河流域五国2019年的截面数据和2016—2020年的面板数据,对中国与湄公河五国在2025年的农业合作潜力进行预测。综合来讲,中国与泰国在农产品贸易领域合作潜力最大,与越南在农业生产要素领域合作潜力最大,与缅甸、柬埔寨、老挝三国农业经贸合作潜力较为低迷。根据各国的不同特性,文章提出了提出优先合作领域、优化贸易合作结构和加强基础设施建设等建议。

China's agricultural development is increasingly constrained by the environment and resources,and the growth is gradually slowing down.Vietnam,Thailand,Myanmar,Laos,Cambodia and other traditional agricultural countries in the Mekong River Basin have great potential for agricultural development,but are still constrained by factors such as investment and productivity in the process of agricultural development.It is necessary to strengthen cooperation with China.This article selects three factors of agricultural complementarity,transportation accessibility and country friendship to build a static and dynamic potential measurement model.using the cross-sectional data of China and the five countries in the Mekong River Basin in 2019 and the panel data from 2016 to 2020,this paper predicts the agricultural cooperation potential of the five countries in 2025.Generally speaking,China and Thailand have the greatest potential for cooperation in the field of agricultural product trade,and the greatest potential for cooperation with Vietnam in the field of agricultural production factors.The potential for cooperation in agricultural economics and trade with Myanmar,Cambodia,and Laos is relatively low.Based on the different characteristics of each country,this article puts forward suggestions on priority areas of cooperation,optimizing the structure of trade cooperation,and strengthening infrastructure construction.