“双减”背景下我国农业碳排放的影响因素及地区差异——基于LDMI分解和面板回归分析

The Influencing Factors and Regional Differences of Our Country's Agricultural Carbon Emissions Under the Background of"Double Reduction":Based on LDMI Decomposition and Panel Regression Analysis

利用2000—2020年31个省份(港澳台除外)的数据测算农业碳排放水平,采用核密度估计方法和LMDI方法研究农业碳排放的区域差异以及各驱动因素对农业碳排放的影响。利用2000—2020年27个省份(京津沪藏,以及港澳台除外)的面板数据构建固定效应模型分析各影响因素对农业碳排放的影响。研究发现:农业碳排放区域差异明显,自2015年后有减小趋势;农业生产效率是农业碳排放量增加的主要抑制因素,地区发展水平是主要促进因素;经济发展水平、农业产业结构和技术因素(化肥)对农业碳排放具有促进作用,农业种植结构和技术因素(农药)对农业碳排放具有抑制作用。自化肥农药零增长行动实施以来,经济发展水平由促进作用转变为抑制作用,我国农业在农业高质量发展的道路上更进一步。

Based on the data of 31 provinces(except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2020,the agricultural carbon emission level was calculated,and the regional differences of agricultural carbon emission and the influence of driving factors on agricultural carbon emission were studied by using the nuclear density estimation method and LMDI method.Using the panel data of 27 provinces(except Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2020,a fixed effect model was constructed to analyze the influence of various influencing factors on agricultural carbon emissions.The results show that the regional differences of agricultural carbon emissions are obvious,and there is a decreasing trend since 2015;Agricultural production efficiency is the main inhibiting factor for the increase of agricultural carbon emissions,and the regional development level is the main promoting factor;Economic development level,agricultural industrial structure and technical factors(chemical fertilizer)can promote agricultural carbon emissions,while agricultural planting structure and technical factors(pesticides)can inhibit pesticide carbon emissions.Since the implementation of the zero growth action of chemical fertilizers and pesticides,the level of economic development has changed from promoting to inhibiting,and China's agriculture has made further progress on the road of high-quality agricultural development.