基于动态改进等比例法的省级CO_(2)排放总量目标分解研究

Allocation of carbon dioxide emission total targets in China province based on the dynamic improved equal proportion distribution

在原应用于全国CO_(2)排放强度目标分解的改进等比例方法基础上进行动态化改进,以适应省级CO_(2)排放总量目标向地级市分解需求。以河北省地级市分解方案为例,结果表明:省内煤炭、钢铁等传统高碳产业城市应严格控制CO_(2)排放增长,仅获得少量CO_(2)相对剩余空间;而京津以南三市获得较多相对剩余空间,为雄安新区建设和北京非首都功能疏解提供一定CO_(2)排放增量空间。通过碳达峰控制时间判别,除唐山市和邯郸市应控制率先达峰外,大多数城市仍按照2030年前按时达峰管控,即可满足河北省2030年前整体达峰需求。最后,基于新老方法分解方案比较分析,动态改进等比例法在公平与效率的基础上,兼顾考量了城市自身发展趋势和控碳政策导向,与原方法分解逻辑和余量侧重有所不同。本方法可进一步优化以适应不同发展特征省份的碳排放目标分解需求。

Based on the original improved equal proportion distribution,the dynamic improvement was carried out to meet the needs of the decomposition of the total provincial CO_(2)emission target to the cities.This method was applied to the Hebei province case.The results show that high-carbon cities in traditional industries such as coal and steel should strictly control the growth of carbon emissions,and only obtain a small amount of CO_(2)relative surplus space;The cities south of Beijing and Tianjin would obtain more CO_(2)relative surplus space than other cities.The construction of Xiongan New Area also needs a certain space for CO_(2)emission increment.According to the judgment result of carbon peaking control time,Tangshan and Handan should reach the peak before 2025;most cities still reach the peak on time according to 2030,which can meet the overall peaking demand of Hebei province before 2030.Based on the comparative analysis of the old and new methods,the new method is based on fairness and efficiency,and development trend of the cities and carbon control policy orientation are taken into account,which is different from the original method’s decomposition logic.This method can be further optimized to adapt to the decomposition needs of carbon emission targets in provinces with different development characteristics.