长江三角洲城市群城镇用地扩展的时空特征及驱动因素分析

Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics and driving factors of urban land expansion in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

选取长江三角洲城市群1995—2015年的城镇用地监测数据,采用城镇扩展强度指数、分形维度以及城镇化率3个指标分析其城镇用地时空演变特征,并基于GWR对其演变的驱动力进行分析。结果表明,长江三角洲城市群城镇用地扩展强度整体呈先上升后下降再缓慢上升的趋势,其中高速扩展型的城镇占总数的7.7%,中速扩展型城镇占总数的20.2%,低速扩展型城镇占总数的72.1%。1995—2015年长江三角洲城市群各省市的分形维数都有所增加,安徽省分形维数较低,变化幅度较大,江苏省较为平稳,上海市呈平稳上升趋势,且江苏省和上海市高于长江三角洲城市群的平均水平。1995—2015年,经济、医疗卫生、教育是长江三角洲城市群南部城市的主要驱动力,第一产业、交通运输和人口则是北部城市的主要驱动力。从空间维度视角来看,1995年经济和医疗卫生是浙江省和上海市的主要驱动力,随着时间的推移,人口是城市群北部的主要驱动力,医疗卫生是城市群南部的主要驱动力。

The urban land monitoring data of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 1995 to 2015 were selected,the spa⁃tial and temporal evolution characteristics of urban land use were analyzed by selecting three indicators of urban land expansion inten⁃sity index,fractal dimension and urbanization rate,and the driving forces of urban land use evolution were analyzed based on geo⁃graphically weighted regression(GWR).The results showed that the urban land expansion intensity in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration increased first,then decreased,and then slowly increased.The towns with high-speed expansion accounted for 7.7%of the total,and those with medium-speed expansion accounted for 20.2%of the total.Towns with low-speed expansion accounted for 72.1%of the total.From 1995 to 2015,the fractal dimension of all provinces in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations in⁃creased,while the fractal dimension of Anhui Province was relatively low and the change range was large;while the fractal dimension of Jiangsu Province was relatively stable,and the fractal dimension of Shanghai City showed a stable rise,and the fractal dimension of Jiangsu Province and Shanghai City were higher than the average level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations.From 1995 to 2015,economy,medical and health care,and education were the main driving forces of cities in the southern part of the Yangtze Riv⁃er Delta urban agglomeration,while primary industry,transportation and population were the main driving forces of cities in the north⁃ern part of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.From the perspective of spatial dimension,in 1995,economy and medical and health care were the main driving forces of the urban agglomerations in Zhejiang Province and Shanghai City.Over time,the popu⁃lation was the main driving force in the northern part of the urban agglomerations,while medical and health care was the main driving force in the southern part of the urban agglomerations.