中国铜资源在用存量与二次供应潜力

Copper In-use Stock and Recycling Potential in China

铜是中国最为紧缺的大宗有色金属矿产。核算中国铜资源在用存量水平,定量化评估二次资源供应潜力,对于缓解铜资源供应压力、保障资源与产业安全具有重要意义。本文通过物质流分析法,构建了铜在用存量分析模型,估算了中国铜在用存量水平,精细刻画了铜全产业链物质流动过程,预测未来到2050年中国铜需求量和理论报废量变化趋势,评估铜资源循环利用潜力。结果显示, 1949—2021年,中国铜消费量、矿山铜产量、粗铜产量、精炼铜产量、废铜产量、铜在用存量等都保持增长状态;铜消费量累计1.9亿t,矿山铜产量累计3583.6万t,粗铜产量累计8824.1万t,精炼铜产量累计约1.4亿t,废铜产量累计约7187.5万t,铜在用存量达到约1.4亿t;通过高效的国际贸易体系,累计净进口铜精矿4325.9万t、粗铜1 010.9万t、精炼铜5 445.5万t、废铜2 978.8万t,累计净出口铜制品2 352.5万t。中国在全球铜产业链具有举足轻重的地位。2022—2050年,中国铜累计需求量约3.6亿t,铜在用存量将快速提升,峰值将在2035年左右出现,达到约2.0亿t;铜二次资源供应潜力累计约3.4亿t,供应潜力峰值将在2041年左右出现,达到约1374万t。铜消费量达峰叠加铜二次资源供应能力的大幅提升,将大幅缓解中国铜资源供应压力。

Copper is the most scarce nonferrous metal mineral in China.As a result,calculating the level of social accumulation of copper resources and quantitatively evaluating the supply potential of secondary resources in China is critical,as they contribute to alleviating the supply pressure of copper resources and ensuring resource and industrial security.We built an analysis model of copper in-use stock using material flow analysis to estimate the social accumulation level,describe the material flow process in the industry chain,and assess the recycling potential of copper resources in China.The results demonstrated that,from 1949 to 2021,China’s copper consumption,accumulation and production have grown.The cumulative copper consumption and output of mined,blistered,refined,and scrap copper are 190 million tons,35.836 million tons,88.241 million tons,140 million tons,and 71.875 million tons,respectively.The socially useful stock of copper has risen to approximately 140 million tons.Through the efficient international trade system,the cumulative net imports of copper concentrate and blister,refined,and scrap copper are 43.259 million tons,10.109 million tons,54.455 million tons,and 29.788 million tons,respectively.The cumulative net export of copper products is 23.525 million tons.China plays a pivotal role in the global copper industry chain. The cumulative demand for copper in China from 2022 to 2050 is predicted to be approximately 360 million tons. The social accumulation of copper will increase rapidly and peak around 2035, reaching approximately 200 million tons. The cumulative supply potential of copper secondary resources is approximately 340 million tons and will peak around 2041, reaching roughly 13.74 million tons. The peak of copper consumption and the substantial increase in the supply capacity of copper secondary resources will greatly ease the supply pressure on China’s copper resources 。