中国铝物质流历史变化分析和再生铝资源利用研究

Analysis of the Historical Changes in Aluminum Material Flow and the Utilization of Secondary Aluminum Resources in China

本文采用物质流分析(Material Flow Analysis,MFA)的方法,构建了铝全生命周期动态物质流分析框架,自上而下的追踪了1949—2021年中国铝的流量、存量和供需情况。结果表明:1)1949—2021年中国铝土矿铝物质累计流入量5.86亿t,国内开采与进口各占一半左右。实际铝物质累计消费量3.74亿t。生命周期内铝损失严重,铝物质损失量2.39亿t。2)2021年人均铝物质社会存量208.9 kg/人,与同经济发展时期的北美、日本基本一致。3)1990年以来中国再生铝产量快速增长,累计0.77亿t,以国内生产为主,占比76.7%。随着含铝产品到达寿命及未来铝需求量的持续走高,将迎来含铝产品的报废时代。建议从全生命周期的角度出发,减少铝在各个环节的损失量;合理布局再生铝产业,提高再生铝的利用,优化铝供应结构,促进铝工业低碳转型,支撑“双碳”目标的实现。

In this paper,a research framework was formulated to analyze the complete life cycle of aluminum by using material flow analysis(MFA),which applied the‘top to bottom’approach to track the flow,stock,and secondary supply of aluminum in China from 1949 to 2021.The results revealed the following:1)The inflow of aluminum from bauxite in China was 586 Mt(million tons)from 1949 to 2021,with the domestic production and import accounting for approximately half of this number,while the actual consumption was 374 Mt.The loss of aluminum during the life cycle was severe,and the volume of resources lost reached 239 Mt.2)In 2021,the per capita aluminum social stock was 208.9 kg,which is consistent with that of North America and Japan in the same period of economic development.3)From 1990 to 2021,the cumulative supply of secondary aluminum in China reached 77 Mt,of which 76.7%was produced in China.As aluminum-containing products reach their life and the future demand for these products continues to rise,the era in which aluminum-containing products being scrapped will gradually usher in. Therefore, it is suggested that the loss of aluminum be reduced at every stage from the perspective of its complete life cycle. Creating a rational layout of the recycled aluminum industry, improving the utilization of secondary aluminum, optimizing the aluminum supply structure, and promoting the low-carbon transformation of the aluminum industry will help achieve the ambitious ‘carbon neutral’ and ‘carbon peak’ targets.