管理层讨论及分析语调对企业未来战略差异的预测作用研究

Research on the Predictive Effect of MD&A Tone on Enterprise Strategic Deviance

基于战略选择理论,构建管理层讨论及分析语调与企业未来战略差异间的关系模型,并引入外部审计质量和年报语调与财务信息一致性,以考察其权变影响。选取2009~2018年中国A股非金融类上市企业为样本进行实证检验。研究表明:管理层积极语调对企业未来战略差异具有显著预测作用,而异常积极语调成为企业掩饰特定战略行为之手段。外部审计质量强化了管理层积极语调对企业未来战略差异的预测作用,但亦加速了异常积极语调掩映下特定战略的实施;年报语调与财务信息一致性增强了管理层语调与企业未来战略差异间的非线性关系。机制分析表明,管理层语调中的信息含量决定了其对企业未来战略预测的有效性。

Based on the strategic choice theory,this study constructs a relationship model between the MD&A tone and enterprise deviance.Within the theoretical framework,the study introduces the external audit quality and the consistency between annual report tone and financial information to analyze their different effects.On this basis,China’s A-share non-financial listed enterprises from 2009 to 2018 are selected as the sample for statistical test.The results show that the positive tone of management can significantly predict the future strategic deviance of enterprises,and the abnormal positive tone has become a method to cover up specific strategic behavior.External audit quality significantly strengthens the predictive effect of positive tone on enterprise’s future strategic deviance,but also accelerates the relationship between abnormal positive tone and enterprise’s future strategy.The consistency between annual report tone and financial information enhances the nonlinear relationship between MD&A tone and enterprise future strategic deviance.The internal mechanism analysis shows that the information content in the management tone determines its effectiveness in predicting the future strategy of the enterprise.