企业不确定性感知对创新决策的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Firm-Level Perception of Uncertainty on Corporate Innovation

从2007~2020年中国A股上市企业披露的年报文本中提取指标,衡量不同企业对经济政策不确定性的感知程度。结果显示:企业不确定性感知存在个体层面的差异,在剔除行业与地区层面的影响因素之后,这种差异仍然存在。在此基础上,进一步探究企业不确定性感知对其创新决策的影响。研究发现,企业不确定性感知与创新决策之间存在倒U形关系。进一步研究表明,当企业融资约束程度、投资不可逆程度,或者管理层风险厌恶程度较高时,虽然一定程度的经济政策不确定性能够激励企业加大研发投入力度与专利申请强度,但这种激励作用会被削弱。此外,还发现企业不确定性感知对创新产出具有持续的激励效应。

This study uses text mining methods to extract information from the annual reports disclosed by Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007~2020,and measures the degree of economic policy uncertainty perceived by firms.It shows that the degree of firm-level perception of economic policy uncertainty is heterogeneous,even after removing industry-and region-level factors.Then,it explores the impact of firm-level perception of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation and finds that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between them.It further finds that for those firms faced with more financing constraints,higher investment irreversibility,or higher risk aversion of management,the incentive effect of firm-level perception of economic policy uncertainty on R&D investment and patent application will be diminished.Finally,it also finds that firm-level perception of economic policy uncertainty has a more persistent and positive impact on innovation output.