山西省地表温度时空变化及其与地质灾害的关系分析

Temporal and spatial variations of land surface temperature in Shanxi Province and analysis of its relationship with geological hazards

利用山西省107个国家气象站1981—2018年0 cm地表温度及崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的资料,采用线性回归、M-K检验、滑动t检验和经验正交函数(EOF)时空分离等方法,对山西省0 cm地表温度时空变化以及与地质灾害的相关性分析得出:山西省年际及四季地温均呈增温上升趋势;地温在1999年春季、2002和2004年夏季、2004年秋季、1993年冬季分别发生由冷转暖的突变,年均地温无突变。利用EOF经验正交分析得出:年和四季第一模态空间变化具有较好的一致性特征,时间序列年和四季都是从2004年之后一致表现为以正位相为主;第二模态南部和北部具有反位向变化的特征。春季崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与年、春季和秋季地温呈正相关(通过95%的检验),即年、春季和秋季地表温度由冷变暖时,春季地质灾害的发生会由少变多。夏季降水量与年和夏秋季地质灾害呈正相关(通过90%和95%的检验),但年和夏秋季地质灾害的发生略滞后于夏季降水的发生,由此也可推断夏季降水是年、夏秋季崩塌和滑坡地质灾害的主要诱发因素。

Based on the data of 0 cm land surface temperature and geological disasters of collapse and landslide from 107 national meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1981 to 2018,the temporal and spatial variations of 0 cm LST in Shanxi Province and its correlation with geological disasters were analyzed by using linear regression,M-K test,sliding t test and empirical orthogonal function(EOF)spatio-temporal separation.The results show that the interannual and seasonal ground temperatures in Shanxi Province showed an increasing trend.The ground temperature changed from cold to warm in spring of 1999,summer of 2002 and 2004,autumn of 2004 and winter of 1993,but the annual average ground temperature did not change.The empirical orthogonal analysis of EOF shows that the spatial variations of the first mode of the year and the four seasons have a good consistency,and the time series year and the four seasons have been consistent with the positive phase since 2004.The south and north of the second mode have the characteristics of the opposite direction.The geological disasters of spring collapse and landslide are positively correlated with the annual,spring and autumn ground temperature(by 95%test),that is,when the annual,spring and autumn surface temperatures change from cold to warm,the occurrence of geological disasters in spring will change from less to more.Summer precipitation is positively correlated with annual and summer-autumn geological disasters(through 90%and 95%tests),but the occurrence of annual and summer-autumn geological disasters is slightly behind the occurrence of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be inferred that summer precipitation is the main inducing factor of annual,summer-autumn collapse and landslide geological disasters.