基于灰色模型的“源-网-荷-储”配电网预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Source Network Load Storage Distribution Network Based on Grey Model

针对主动配电网(ADN)的内涵、“源荷储”特性、风光出力预测模型及方法进行综述;分析由于日内各类负荷数据相较于日前24 h负荷数据对于优化调度更具有现实意义,提出基于累加方式的灰色预测模型来预测风光出力情况,并对预测过程及方法进行了仿真研究与分析,根据日前7天的24 h数据来预测日内24 h的风光出力情况。仿真结果表明,预测得到的日内48个风光出力数据具有较高的精确性。

The connotation of active distribution network(ADN),Source Load Storage characteristics,wind and solar output prediction model and method are introduced and analyzed in turn.Because all kinds of load data in the day have more practical significance for optimal dispatching than the load data in the previous 24 hours,the grey prediction model based on accumulation method is used to predict the wind and solar output,The prediction process and method are simulated and analyzed.According to the 24 hours data of the previous 7 days,the 24 hours solar output in the day is predicted.The simulation results show that the predicted 48 solar output data in the day have high accuracy.