乌克兰危机的影响及启示

The Impacts and Implications of the Ukraine Crisis

乌克兰危机全面升级一年来,对国际政治、经济和军事均产生重大而深远的影响。后冷战时代国际秩序逐渐崩塌,国际政治的阵营化和国际经济的逆全球化趋势增强,全球军备竞赛愈演愈烈,新军事技术的运用正将人类引向一个“新的战争时代”。美国利用乌克兰与俄罗斯打代理人战争,借机强化同盟体系,稳内、笼欧、制俄一起推进,成为这场危机的最大获益者。在西方支持下,乌克兰的战斗能力和战斗意志大增,俄乌双方均不会轻言求和。俄乌僵持将导致冲突长期化,进而推升核战争的风险。与此同时,谈判控制危机的可能性也不能排除。危机向欧洲提出了战略自主重要性的命题,向亚洲国家发出了警惕美国在本地区挑起新的代理人战争的警告。中国发出的全球安全倡议和政治解决乌克兰危机的立场文件,为当事方走出危机和国际社会构建持久和平提供了新思路。

Over the past year,the Ukraine crisis has been escalated in an all-round way,which has had a significant and far-reaching impact on international politics,economy and military affairs.The post-Cold War international order is collapsing,where the tendency of bloc politics and reverse globalization in international economies is increasing;the global arms race is intensifying;and the application of new military technologies is leading human beings into a“new era of war."The United States made use of Ukraine to fight a proxy war with Russia,and took this opportunity to strengthen its alliance system as well as achieved its triple objectives of promoting internal stability,drawing over Europe and sanctioning Russia,therefore becoming the biggest beneficiary of this crisis.With the support of the Western countries,Ukraine's fighting capability will increase,and neither Russia nor Ukraine will reconcile easily.The standoff between Russia and Ukraine will prolong the conflict,pushing up the risk of a nuclear war.At the same time,the possibility of managing this crisis by negotiations cannot be ruled out.The crisis reminds Europe of the importance of strategic autonomy,and warns Asian countries to be vigilant against the United States provoking new proxy wars in Asia.China's Global Security Initiative and China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis provide new ideas for the parties concerned to get out of the crisis and for the international community to build lasting peace.