石油在中东战争中的作用:论争、演进逻辑与现实

The Role of Oil in the Middle East War:Controversy,Evolutionary Logic and Reality

近百年的中东战争史是用石油串联起来的历史,这是大部分主流国际关系理论的基本共识。这种把中东地区所有战争的驱动都指向石油的话语深受资源战争逻辑和能源现实主义基调的影响,导致石油因素对中东战争抑制作用的探究被忽视。实际上,石油因素既能催化战争,亦能抑制战争。获取石油资源、石油权力的诱惑以及石油收入的支撑,增加了国家通过武力解决利益争端的意愿,而对占领成本、报复风险、外力介入的担忧和对合作收益的期许则是冲突双方放弃对抗与停止战争的重要考量因素,战争的最终走向取决于国家对石油收益与战争成本的综合权衡。石油因素在中东战争中的两种作用,体现在利比亚与乍得战争、两伊战争等催化案例,以及巴林与卡塔尔的哈瓦群岛领土争端、埃及与以色列的“六日战争”、海湾战争的抑制案例之中。鉴此,在全球能源转型和军事技术变革的今天,围绕中东石油资源控制权爆发冲突的频率是不确定的,但国家为获取该地石油资源而发动大规模战争的概率不大。未来,发动石油战争成本的边际化、石油产业相互依赖的常态化和域外大国协调机制的制度化,将有效避免利益相关方因中东石油资源而陷入“石油战争神话”的话语窠臼。

The nearly 100-year history of wars in the Middle East is a history linked together with oil,according to most mainstream international relations theories.This discourse,which blames oil for all Middle Eastern wars,is heavily influenced by the logic of resource warfare and energy realism,resulting in a neglected exploration of oil resources'role in preventing war.Indeed,the oil factor can precipitate a war as well as inhibit it.Oil resources,the allure of oil power,and the support of oil revenues have increased states'willingness to use force to settle disputes over interests.While,concerned about the cost of occupation,the risk of retaliation,the possibility of foreign intervention,and the expectation of benefits from cooperation,the conflicting parties would seek to cease fighting and end the war.The outcome of the war is determined by the state's assessment of the benefits of oil versus the costs of war.The two roles of the oil factor in Middle East wars are reflected in cases of catalysis,such as the Libya-Chad conflict and the Iran-Iraq war,while also cases of inhibition,such as the Hawar Islands dispute,the Six-Day War,and the Gulf War.In an era of global energy transition and military-technical innovations,the frequency of conflict over Middle East oil resources is uncertain,but large-scale wars for control of the oil resources are highly improbable.The marginalization of the cost of waging oil wars,the normalization of oil industry interdependence,and the institutionalization of the coordination mechanism will effectively prevent interested parties from falling into the stereotype of the"Oil War Myth"in the future.