中国环境保护税的减排效应——基于提高污染物适用税额视角

Emission reduction effects of China's environmental protection tax:from the perspective of increasing the applicable tax amount of pollutants

环境保护税赋予各省级政府在规定范围内自主确定和调整污染物具体适用税额的权利,是中国治理污染的一项重要举措。从提高污染物适用税额的视角研究环境保护税减排效应,对调整污染治理措施具有重要的理论价值。该研究使用2015—2020年248个地级市的面板数据,以2018年中国部分省份提高环境保护税污染物适用税额为外部政策冲击,利用双重差分方法,对《环境保护税法》提高污染物排放适用税额的减排效应进行实证分析,并考察城市之间外商投资规模、区域位置和适用税额提高幅度的异质性。研究结果表明:①提高SO2适用税额能显著降低工业SO2排放量。DID模型回归结果表明,提高SO2适用税额能降低16.8%的工业SO2排放量。上述结果通过了稳健性检验。②异质性分析表明,中部地区减排效应明显,东部和西部地区减排效应不显著;外商投资规模与减排效果正相关,拥有较高水平外商投资规模的城市受到政策冲击的力度更大,相对于平均水平能够减少0.2%左右的污染物排放量,而较低水平的外商投资规模所带来的污染效应较低,政策的减排效应不显著。③进一步研究表明,SO2适用税额提升幅度在高于标准25%~100%之间的减排效应优于100%以上提升幅度的减排效应。基于以上研究结果,该研究得出的结论为:环境保护税开征以来,提高污染物适用税额能显著降低污染物排放量,但适用税额提高幅度并非越高越好,应保持在合理范围内才能取得更好的减排效果。对此,提出实施区域协同的环境规制政策,即中央与地方协商调整地方的环境保护税污染物征收标准,且在合适的范围内提升污染物的适用税额,提升污染物适用税额的幅度不宜超过100%;提高引进外资的质量水平等政策建议。

As an important measure for China's pollution control,the environmental protection tax gives each provincial government the right to independently determine and adjust the specific applicable tax amount of pollutants within the specified scope.Studying the emission reduction effects of environmental protection tax from the perspective of increasing the applicable tax amount of pollutants has important theoretical value for the next step of adjusting pollution control measures.Using the panel data from 248 prefecture-level cities from 2015 to 2020,this study took the increase in the applicable tax amount of environmental protection tax in some provinces in 2018 as an external policy impact,and used the difference-in-differences method to empirically analyze the emission reduction effects of the Environmental Protection Tax Law on increasing the applicable tax amount of pollutant discharge.The study also analyzed the heterogeneity of foreign investment scale,regional location,and applicable tax increase between cities.The results showed that:①Increasing the applicable tax amount of pollutants could significantly reduce pollutant emissions,the regression results of the DID model showed that the applicable tax on SO2 significantly reduced industrial SO2 emissions by 16.8%for each increase in SO2.The above results passed the robustness test.②Heterogeneity analysis showed that the emission reduction effects were obvious in the central region,but those in the eastern and western regions were not significant.The scale of foreign investment was positively correlated with the emission reduction effects,and cities with a higher level of foreign investment were more affected by the policy,which could reduce pollutant emissions by about 0.2%relative to the average.The pollution effects of the lower level of foreign investment were lower and the emission reduction effect of the policy was not significant.③Further research showed that the emission reduction effects of the applicable tax amount increase of SO2 between 25%and 100%higher than the standard were better than the emission reduction effects of a more than 100%increase.However,it was not the higher the better for the applicable tax amount increase;better emissions reduction effects could be achieved by being maintained within a reasonable range.Based on the above research conclusions,it is proposed to implement a regional coordinated environmental regulation policy,that is,the central and local governments negotiate to adjust the local environmental protection tax pollutant collection standards and increase the applicable tax amount of pollutants within an appropriate range.Furthermore,the range of the applicable tax amount of pollutants should not exceed 100%,and the quality level of foreign investment should be improved.