农地确权对农民工市民化的影响:经验分析与实证检验

Analysis and empirical testing of the effects of rural land right confirmation on migrant workers’urban citizenship

中国农村转移人口规模巨大,但转移速度逐渐放缓,从农地确权的角度探讨农村劳动力的转移潜力是否消耗殆尽很有必要。基于农地确权的制度实践,该论文旨在解构中国农村劳动力乡城转移的特殊性,将中国农村劳动力乡城转移视为包括四类主体(农民、农民工、新市民、市民)的三阶段(农村割舍、城市进入、城市融入)进程,利用2014年和2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据实证检验农地确权影响劳动力转移的阶段效应和滞后效应,进一步讨论其对劳动力家庭化迁移的影响。研究发现:(1)农地确权影响劳动力转移的效应存在阶段异质性,促进劳动力第二阶段身份转变而阻碍第一阶段产业转移和第三阶段社保转型。然而,农地确权在促进劳动力乡城转移上也有滞后性,确权时间满2年的劳动力家庭参与非农就业和城镇企业职工基本养老保险的概率分别提高16.9%和1.9%。(2)农地确权在影响劳动力家庭化迁移上具有分位异质性,能够显著提高低分位劳动力家庭的举家迁移比率而降低新生代农民工的迁移比率。基于此,政策设计重点在于:(1)分阶段、分类型推进农村劳动力乡城转移。一方面增强农地确权的农村推力,在转移第一、第二阶段不断完善土地流转、托管、退出机制以供给农民、农民工、新市民转移动力;另一方面增强城市转移拉力,在转移第二、第三阶段减小城市转移阻力,为农民工和新市民创造“留得下”的城市务工与生活环境。(2)根据群体确权时间分类施策。优先解决低分位“两栖型”劳动力家庭确权遗留问题,允许新一代农民工“带土(权)进城”,依托农地确权成果促进农村劳动力转移及市民化。

In view of the huge size of China’s rural migrant population and the gradual slowdown of its transfer,it is necessary to explore whether the transfer potential of rural labor is exhausted from the perspective of the confirmation of rural land rights.Based on the institutional practice of rural land right confirmation,we deconstructed the particularity of rural-urban transfer in China and regarded it as a three-stage transfer process(rural separation,urban entry,and urban integration)involving four types of subjects(farmers,migrant workers,new urban citizens,and urban citizens).We used the China Labor Dynamics Survey data of 2014 and 2016 to empirically test the stage effect and lag effect of rural land right conformation on labor transfer and further discuss its impact on labor family migration.We found that:①The effects of rural land right conformation on labor transfer had stage heterogeneity,which promoted the second stage of labor identity transformation and hindered the first stage of industrial transfer and the third stage of social security transformation.However,rural land right conformation had a lag effect on promoting laborers’rural-urban transfer:the probability of labor force participation in non-agricultural employment and basic pension insurance for urban enterprise employees who had been confirmed for two years increased by 16.9%and 1.9%,respectively.②Rural land right conformation had quantile heterogeneity in affecting the family migration of laborers,particularly for low-quantile labor families,which could significantly increase family migration and decrease the migration of the new generation of migrant workers.Based on these,we suggest that:①Policy design should focus on the promotion of the laborers’rural-urban transfer according to their transfer stages and types.On the one hand,policymakers should strengthen the driving force of rural land right conformation from the rural side and continuously improve the mechanisms of land transfer,land trusteeship,and land withdrawal in the first and second transfer stages in order to provide transfer power to farmers,migrant workers,and new urban citizens.On the other hand,policymakers should strengthen the pulling force from the urban side,reduce the resistance to urban transfer in the second and third transfer stages,and create an urban working and living environment friendly for migrant workers and new citizens.②Policymakers should classify and implement policies according to different confirmation times,give priority to solving the problems left over by the confirmation from the low-quantile‘amphibious’labor families,and allow the new generation of migrant workers to‘bring soil into the city.’These measures can rely on the results of rural land right conformation to promote transfer and urban citizenship for rural laborers.