汇率政策不确定性与企业信贷融资:基于外币贷款视角

Foreign Exchange Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Credit Financing from the Foreign Currency Loan Perspective

汇率政策调整、微观主体对汇率政策执行的不准确预期形成汇率政策不确定性,本文站在外币贷款视角,探索其对企业信贷融资的影响。研究发现,相对本币债务,汇率政策不确定性使企业外币贷款增加,在控制外币信贷环境利好和同期汇率波动后,这一影响依然存在。汇率政策不确定性与企业外币贷款的相关性,在财务与汇兑风险越高、汇率感知越强的样本中表现越明显,人民币贬值预期和本外币贷款利差分别负向、正向调节两者关系,证实中国企业借入外币贷款的风险对冲与成本节约动机。进一步,汇率政策不确定性抑制企业有息负债和整体财务杠杆,企业持有外币贷款有利于价值增值。本文为开放型经济建设下实体企业拓宽融资渠道与汇率风险应对提供启示。

The adjustments of foreign exchange policy and uncertain expectations of micro entities on the policy implementation,both form Foreign Exchange Policy Uncertainty(FEPU).From the perspective of foreign currency loan,this paper explores the effect of FEPU on firm credit financing.The results show that compared to local currency debt,FEPU contributes to a significant increase in firm foreign currency loans.The relation still holds after controlling for favorable credit policy and exchange rate fluctuations during the same period.Besides,the positive effect is more obvious in the sample with higher financial or exchange risk and stronger perception of foreign exchange.The RMB depreciation expectation and interest rate differential between local and foreign currency loan respectively moderate the relation between FEPU and firm foreign currency loans negatively and positively.The results confirm the risk hedging and cost saving incentives of firm foreign currency loans.Additional tests show that FEPU has a significant restraining effect on firm interest-bearing debt or total leverage ratio,while borrowing foreign currency loans is more conducive to firm value enhancement.This paper has implications for firms to expand financing channels and deal with exchange rate risks under the background of open economy construction.