战略竞争、出口管制与中美高技术产品贸易

Strategic Competition,Export Control and Sino-US High-Tech Products Trade

随着美国对华战略竞争步伐日益加快,高技术出口管制被美国视为打压中国和护持自身技术霸权的重要政策工具。然而对相关数据的分析显示,中美高技术贸易不仅仍在继续进行,而且在部分领域甚至有所增加。整体而言,美国对华经济战略一直在安全逻辑和发展逻辑之间寻求平衡,在两类逻辑的共同作用下,威胁性、互利性、替代性和自主性塑造了美国对华技术出口管制的政策选择。尽管威胁性在美国对华技术出口管制的决策中占据着首要地位,但中美在高技术产品贸易上的互利性、中国自其他国家进口高技术产品的替代性和中国在相关技术领域不断提升的自主性不同程度地抑制了美国大规模限制高技术产品对华出口的冲动。这一机制在对中美半导体制造设备贸易案例的考察中得到了验证,而半导体制造技术在美国当前对华技术出口管制中处于核心地位。厘清战略竞争背景下美国对华出口管制决策的影响因素,能够为理解中美博弈的复杂性、中美高技术产品贸易的相互依赖性以及美国对华技术“脱钩”的有限性提供有益视角。

The strategic competition between China and the United States is intensifying.The United States regards high-tech export control as an important policy to win strategic competition with China.However,through the analysis of Sino-US bilateral high-tech products trade,Sino-US high-tech trade still continues,and even increases in some areas.On the whole,the US economic strategy towards China has been seeking a balance between the security logic and the development logic.Under the joint influence of the two logics,four factors( the threat,mutual benefit,substitution and autonomy) shape the policy choice of the US technology export control on China.Although the threat plays a primary role in the US decision on the export control of technology on China,the mutual benefit between China and the United States in the trade of high-tech products,the substitution of high-tech products imported from abroad by China and the increasing autonomy of China in the relevant technology fields have restrained the impulse of the United States to restrict the export of high-tech products to China on a large scale.