月饼变温条件下保质期预测模型的建立与评价

Establishment and Evaluation of Prediction Model for the Shelf Life of Moon Cakes Under Variable Temperatures

为探究月饼在不同贮藏温度下的品质变化,以预测月饼经运输与贮藏流通后准确的保质期,研究了22、37℃和47℃恒温条件下月饼酸价的变化规律,采用Arrhenius方程结合食品TTT理论构建变温条件下基于酸价的月饼保质期预测模型,并模拟变温流通过程来验证模型的准确性。结果发现,月饼酸价的变化规律符合一级动力学方程,建立的月饼变温保质期预测模型的相对误差在5%以内,说明该预测模型能够拟合实际情况下月饼酸价的变化情况,并能够准确预测月饼变温流通环节中的剩余保质期。

In order to explore the quality changes of moon cakes at different storage temperatures and to predict the accurate shelf life of moon cakes after transportation and storage,the changes in the acid value of moon cakes under constant temperature conditions of 22℃,37℃and 47℃were studied,and the Arrhenius equation was used to combine food the TTT theory builds a moon cake shelf life prediction model based on acid value under variable temperatures,and simulates the variable temperature circulation process to verify the accuracy of the model.The results showed that the variation of the acid value of moon cakes conformed to the first-order kinetic equation,and the relative error of the established prediction model for the shelf life of moon cakes with variable temperature was within 5%,indicating that the prediction model could fit the changes in the acid value of moon cakes under actual conditions,and could accurately predict the remaining shelf life of moon cakes in the variable temperatures circulation process.