旅游者疫后出游影响因素研究——基于Cox回归分析

Study on Influencing Factors of Tourists’Travel after COVID-19——Based on Cox Regression Analysis

科学甄别旅游者疫后出游影响因素,对明确目的地营销方向、实现旅游业快速重启具有重要意义。本研究基于651名志愿者疫后出游数据,借助Cox回归分析,对旅游者疫后出游影响因素进行了检验,发现:“出游目的”(除“公务”外)对疫后一年内旅游者出游存在显著影响;旅游者“年收入”“受教育程度”“期待”“冲动”及目的地“沟通一致性”对疫后一年内旅游者出游存在显著正向影响;“犹豫”“防疫手续繁琐程度”对疫后一年内旅游者出游存在显著负向影响。本研究对拓宽生存分析在旅游研究领域的应用边界及指导目的地精准营销有一定启示。

Scientifically identifying the influencing factors of post epidemic tourists’travel is of great significance for clarifying the marketing direction of the destination and realizing the rapid restart of the tourism industry.Based on the post epidemic travel data of 651 volunteers and Cox regression analysis,this study examines the influencing factors of tourists’post epidemic travel,and found that:“travel purpose”(except“official business”)has a significant impact on tourists’travel within one year after the epidemic;the“annual income”,“education level”,“expectation”,“impulse”of tourists and“communication consistency”of destinations have significant and positive effects on tourists’travel within one year after the epidemic;“hesitation”and“cumbersome degree of epidemic prevention procedures”have a significant negative impact on tourists’travel within one year after the epidemic.This study has a certain significance in broadening the application boundary of survival analysis in the field of tourism research and guiding the precise and accurate marketing of destinations.